宝城期货甲醇早报-20250709

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The methanol 2509 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. The supply - demand structure is weak, with increasing internal and external supply and decreasing downstream demand. However, the potential new round of supply - side reform may boost domestic commodity futures [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Outlook - Short - term view of methanol 2509: volatile [1] - Medium - term view of methanol 2509: volatile [1] - Intraday view of methanol 2509: weakly volatile [1][5] - Overall reference view: weakly running [1][5] Driving Logic - Supply side: Domestic methanol production capacity is continuously released, increasing internal supply pressure. Overseas shipments are arriving, increasing external supply expectations, and ports are in a inventory - building cycle [5]. - Demand side: Downstream demand has entered the off - season [5]. - Policy factor: The recent high - level meeting proposed to address low - price disorderly competition and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, and a new round of supply - side reform may boost domestic commodity futures [5]. Price Performance - On Tuesday night, the domestic methanol futures maintained a weakly volatile trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.67% to 2366 yuan/ton [5].