丙烯系列报告：丙烯下游需求介绍

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China has become the world's largest propylene consumption market, with strong growth in domestic propylene demand in the past, but the demand has slowed down in recent years due to the slowdown of high - speed expansion of downstream product capacities. In 2024, China's propylene consumption and apparent consumption were about 55 million tons per year [11]. - Polypropylene is the main downstream product of propylene, but its consumption proportion has decreased slightly in recent years, while the proportion of other downstream products has increased slightly, showing a trend of diversified development of propylene downstream consumption [15][17]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Propylene Downstream Demand Situation - From 2015 to 2024, the average annual propylene consumption growth rate was 7.7%, and the average annual apparent consumption growth rate was 10.5%. The consumption growth rate reached a high of 13.7% in 2021, and the apparent consumption growth rate peak was 13.5% in 2016 [11]. - In 2024, in the propylene downstream consumption structure, PP (including granules and powders) accounted for 68% (62% for PP granules and 6% for PP powders), followed by propylene oxide (8%), acrylonitrile (6%), and phenol - acetone (5%) [14]. 3.2 Propylene Downstream Demand: Polypropylene 3.2.1 Polypropylene Overview - Polypropylene is a thermoplastic made by polymerizing propylene monomers, with characteristics such as light weight, high melting point, corrosion resistance, and easy processing. It can be divided into oil - based, coal - based, and propane dehydrogenation (PDH) - based PP according to different raw materials, and into granules and powders according to different forms [18]. 3.2.2 Polypropylene Capacity Pattern - By 2024, China's PP capacity exceeded 50 million tons per year, accounting for about 50% of the world's total capacity, ranking first in the world. The capacity growth rate has been over 10% in recent years. PP granules accounted for 84% of the capacity, and PP powders accounted for 16%, with the powder capacity shrinking due to environmental protection requirements [21]. - With the continuous commissioning of PP capacity in recent years, production profits have fluctuated around the break - even point or maintained a small profit, and capacity utilization has reached a record low [24]. 3.3 Propylene Downstream Demand: Propylene Oxide 3.3.1 Propylene Oxide Overview - Propylene oxide is a colorless, flammable liquid mainly used to synthesize polyether polyols and then manufacture polyurethanes. The mainstream production processes are HPPO and co - oxidation methods, while the chlorohydrin method is being phased out due to environmental pressure [31][34]. 3.3.2 Propylene Oxide Capacity Pattern - In 2024, China's propylene oxide capacity exceeded 7 million tons per year, accounting for over 40% of the world's total capacity, ranking first in the world. The capacity growth rate slowed down to 16% in 2024. Capacity utilization has gradually decreased since 2021, and production profits have shown a downward trend, with long - term losses in 2025 [35][37]. 3.4 Propylene Downstream Demand: n - Butanol 3.4.1 n - Butanol Overview - n - Butanol is a colorless, transparent liquid mainly used as a solvent and chemical intermediate. The mainstream production route is the propylene carbonyl synthesis method [41][42]. 3.4.2 n - Butanol Capacity Pattern - In 2024, China's n - butanol capacity was 3.8 million tons per year, being the world's largest producer. After some backward - process capacities were eliminated, the capacity grew again in 2022 with a growth rate of 17%. Currently, the propylene carbonyl synthesis method is mainly used. External demand is good, production has increased, capacity utilization has improved, but profits have decreased significantly compared with the past two years [43][45]. 3.5 Propylene Downstream Demand: Octanol 3.5.1 Octanol Overview - Octanol is a colorless, oily liquid mainly used as a raw material for plasticizers. Its production process is the propylene carbonyl synthesis method [50]. 3.5.2 Octanol Capacity Pattern - In 2024, China's octanol capacity was 3.3 million tons per year, ranking first in the world. The capacity growth rate increased significantly to 33% in 2024. Capacity utilization has been high, but production profits have declined rapidly with the commissioning of new plants in 2024 [51][56]. 3.6 Propylene Downstream Demand: Acrylic Acid 3.6.1 Acrylic Acid Overview - Acrylic acid is a colorless, pungent liquid mainly used to synthesize acrylates. The mainstream production route is the two - step oxidation of propylene [58][61]. 3.6.2 Acrylic Acid Capacity Pattern - In 2024, China's acrylic acid capacity exceeded 4 million tons per year, ranking first in the world. The capacity growth restarted in 2020, with a growth rate of 14% in 2022. Capacity utilization has been between 70% - 80%, and production profits have recovered this year [62][65]. 3.7 Propylene Downstream Demand: Acrylonitrile 3.7.1 Acrylonitrile Overview - Acrylonitrile is a colorless, flammable liquid mainly used in synthetic fibers and some fine chemicals. The mainstream production route is the propylene ammoxidation method [71][72]. 3.7.2 Acrylonitrile Capacity Pattern - In 2024, China's acrylonitrile capacity was about 4.4 million tons per year. The average annual capacity growth rate from 2019 to 2023 was over 15%. Capacity utilization has decreased after the commissioning of new capacities, and production profits have been in a loss state for a long time [73][78]. 3.8 Propylene Downstream Demand: Phenol 3.8.1 Phenol Overview - Phenol is a colorless crystal or white molten solid mainly used to produce bisphenol A. The mainstream production route is the cumene method, which co - produces acetone [81]. 3.8.2 Phenol Capacity Pattern - In 2024, China's phenol capacity was about 6.4 million tons per year, with an average capacity growth rate of 30% in the past three years. Capacity utilization has been around 80%, but the production profit of phenol - acetone has been in a loss state for a long time [82][86]. 3.9 Propylene Downstream Demand: Acetone 3.9.1 Acetone Overview - Acetone is a colorless, transparent liquid mainly used as a solvent and chemical intermediate. It is a by - product of phenol production through the cumene method [89][91]. 3.9.2 Acetone Capacity Pattern - In 2024, China's acetone capacity was about 4 million tons per year, with an average capacity growth rate of 30% in the past three years, and the output has been increasing year by year [92]. 3.10 Propylene Downstream Demand: Epichlorohydrin 3.10.1 Epichlorohydrin Overview - Epichlorohydrin is a colorless, flammable liquid mainly used to produce epoxy resins. The production route that requires propylene is the high - temperature propylene chlorination method, which is being replaced by the glycerol method [96]. 3.10.2 Epichlorohydrin Capacity Pattern - In 2024, China's epichlorohydrin capacity exceeded 2.1 million tons per year, ranking first in the world. The capacity growth rate in the past three years was 20%. The glycerol method capacity accounts for a large proportion and is the main new - added direction. Capacity utilization is relatively low, and production profits have recovered in recent years [97][99].