尿素：小幅探涨

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Short - term urea market is supported by domestic trade rigid demand procurement and export pick - up, with prices oscillating. The oscillating pattern is expected to continue this week [2]. - In the short term, urea shows a state of small - scale price increase dominated by speculation. The fundamentals are expected to improve marginally in early July, with supply - side maintenance leading to lower开工率 and daily output, and demand - side export pick - up preventing large - scale inventory accumulation. However, export information is uncertain, and domestic agricultural demand is ending, suppressing price increases [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Urea Fundamental Data - Futures Market (09 Contract): The closing price was 1,763 yuan/ton (up 15 from the previous day), the settlement price was 1,755 yuan/ton (up 9), the trading volume was 193,397 lots (up 52,033), the open interest was 214,386 lots (up 1,128), the number of warehouse receipts was 2,607 tons (up 1,330), and the turnover was 678.928 million yuan (up 185.318 million) [2]. - Basis and Spread: The Shandong regional basis was 57 (down 15), the Fengxi - disk basis was - 83 (down 15), the Dongguang - disk basis was 17 (down 15), and the UR09 - UR01 spread was 40 (up 4) [2]. - Spot Market: Factory prices of some enterprises remained unchanged, while the trading price in the Shanxi region increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,680 yuan/ton. The supply - side开工率 was 84.99% (up 0.86%), and the daily output was 196,760 tons (up 2,000) [2]. 2. Industry News - Inventory Situation: On June 25, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 109.59 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.01 million tons or 3.53%. The inventory of some enterprises increased, while that of others decreased. The overall inventory reduction was limited, and it is expected to enter an oscillating pattern [2]. - Market Trend: The short - term market is supported by domestic and export demand, with prices oscillating. In early July, fundamentals are expected to improve marginally, but export information is uncertain, and domestic agricultural demand is ending, suppressing price increases [2][4].