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工业硅:情绪扰动增加,多晶硅:关注政策端落地情况
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-07-09 02:22

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The sentiment disturbance in the industrial silicon market is increasing, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policies in the polysilicon market [1] - A new round of "anti - involution" and capacity - reduction actions have started in industries such as photovoltaic, steel, and cement. Some domestic photovoltaic glass enterprises will cut production by 30% starting from July, and some steel mills have received emission - reduction and production - limit notices [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: For industrial silicon, the Si2509 closing price is 8,215 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1,707,280 lots and an open interest of 387,122 lots. For polysilicon, the PS2508 closing price is 38,385 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 634,366 lots and an open interest of 110,547 lots [1] - Basis: The industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) is +405 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon spot premium (against N - type re - feeding) is +1050 yuan/ton [1] - Price: The price of East China oxygen - passing Si5530 is 8750 yuan/ton, and the price of polysilicon - N - type re - feeding material is 39000 yuan/ton [1] - Profit: The profit of silicon plants (Xinjiang new standard 553) is - 2851 yuan/ton, and the profit of polysilicon enterprises is - 4.6 yuan/kg [1] - Inventory: The industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 55.2 million tons, and the polysilicon manufacturer inventory is 27.2 million tons [1] - Raw Material Cost: The price of Xinjiang silicon ore is 340 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang washed coking coal is 1250 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On July 2, the steel and photovoltaic sectors in the A - share market saw a wave of daily limit. The "anti - involution" actions in industries such as photovoltaic, steel, and cement have begun, with production - reduction measures taken [2][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval [3]