国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250709

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The report analyzes the trends of various black series commodities on July 9, 2025, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs. Most commodities are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations, affected by factors such as macro - sentiment and market expectations [2][4][7][8] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Price and Position Data: The closing price of the futures was 733.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan or 0.27%. The position of I2509 was 655,157 hands, an increase of 7,312 hands. Among spot prices, the price of Karara fines (65%) rose 2.0 yuan to 811.0 yuan/ton [4] - News: On July 7, local time, US President Trump signed an executive order to extend the so - called "reciprocal tariff" suspension period from July 9 to August 1 [4] - Trend Strength: 0, indicating a neutral trend [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Price and Position Data: The closing price of RB2510 was 3,063 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan or - 0.13%; HC2510 was 3,191 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or - 0.06%. The trading volume of RB2510 was 954,572 hands, with a position of 2,168,547 hands, a decrease of 28,783 hands; HC2510 had a trading volume of 341,788 hands, a position of 1,593,691 hands, an increase of 8,136 hands [8] - News: In late June 2025, key steel enterprises produced 2129 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 212.9 million tons, a 0.9% decrease in daily output; 1953 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 195.3 million tons, a 0.3% increase in daily output; and 2257 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 225.7 million tons, a 6.4% increase in daily output. On July 7, Vietnam officially announced anti - dumping duties on Chinese steel products [10] - Trend Strength: Both rebar and hot - rolled coil have a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral trend [11] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Price and Position Data: The closing price of ferrosilicon 2508 was 5344 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan; 2509 was 5350 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan. The closing price of silicomanganese 2508 was 5648 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; 2509 was 5650 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [12] - News: On July 8, President Xi Jinping pointed out during an inspection in Shanxi that the coal industry should be upgraded. On the same day, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were reported. Yunnan Qujing Chenggang finalized the procurement price of ferrosilicon at 5570 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of silicomanganese at 5630 yuan/ton [13][15] - Trend Strength: Both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral trend [14] Coke and Coking Coal - Price and Position Data: The closing price of JM2509 was 891 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan or 1.02%; J2509 was 1424.5 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.14%. The trading volume of JM2509 was 723,095 hands, with a position of 544,987 hands, a decrease of 4404 hands; J2509 had a trading volume of 16,389 hands, a position of 48,080 hands, a decrease of 18 hands [17] - News: On July 8, the CCI metallurgical coal index showed price changes. From the top 20 members' position on the DCE on July 8, the long - position of JM2509 increased by 4491 hands, and the short - position decreased by 5293 hands; for J2509, the long - position increased by 180 hands, and the short - position decreased by 59 hands [18][19] - Trend Strength: Coke has a trend strength of 0 (neutral), and coking coal has a trend strength of 1 (slightly bullish) [19] Thermal Coal - Price and Position Data: The ZC2507 contract had no trading on the previous day. The previous opening price was 931.6000 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6000 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840.0000 yuan/ton, and it closed at 840.0000 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan from the previous settlement price [22] - News: Southern port and domestic origin prices of thermal coal were reported. From the top 20 members' position on the ZCE on July 8, both the long - position and short - position of ZC2507 decreased by 0 hands [23] - Trend Strength: 0, indicating a neutral trend [24] Logs - Price and Position Data: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 785.5 yuan, down 0.9% compared to before. The trading volume was 15,821 hands, down 3.7%; the position was 21,351 hands, down 1.7% [25] - News: On July 7, local time, US President Trump signed an executive order to extend the so - called "reciprocal tariff" suspension period from July 9 to August 1 [27] - Trend Strength: 0, indicating a neutral trend [27]