国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20250709

Report Overall Summary - Report Date: July 9, 2025 - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy - Companies Covered: Nickel, Stainless Steel, Lithium Carbonate, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - Nickel: The upside potential is limited, and nickel prices are under pressure at low levels [2][4]. - Stainless Steel: Inventories are slightly digested, and steel prices are recovering, but the recovery is limited [2][5]. - Lithium Carbonate: It is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the subsequent position volume [2][11]. - Industrial Silicon: Emotional disturbances are increasing [2][14]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy - side measures [2][14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,370, down 170 from the previous day. For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 12,700, up 60 from the previous day. Other data such as trading volume, spot prices, and spreads also showed various changes [5]. - Macro and Industry News: There were events like Ontario potentially halting nickel exports to the US, the trial - production of an Indonesian nickel - iron project, the resumption of a nickel smelter, and the shutdown of an Indonesian cold - rolling mill [5][6][7][8]. - Trend Intensity: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0 [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 63,880, up 220 from the previous day. The position volume and other related data also had corresponding changes. The production in June 2025 was 7.40 million tons, with a 5.7% month - on - month increase, and the planned production in July was 7.93 million tons, with a 7.1% month - on - month increase [11][12][13]. - Macro and Industry News: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased, and there were production changes in different regions [12]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0 [13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Si2509 contract was 8,215, up 170 from the previous day. For polysilicon, the closing price of the PS2508 contract was 38,385, up 1,870 from the previous day. There were also changes in trading volume, position volume, spreads, and inventory data [14]. - Macro and Industry News: The A - share market's steel and photovoltaic sectors had a涨停潮, and there were production reduction actions in the photovoltaic and cement industries [15]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1 [16].