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白糖:巴西出口增加
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-07-09 02:32

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoint - The report provides an overview of the sugar market, including price data, macro and industry news, and supply - demand forecasts for domestic and international markets [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Fundamental Tracking - The price of raw sugar is 16.15 cents per pound, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.1; the mainstream spot price is 6040 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan year - on - year; the futures main contract price is 5747 yuan per ton, down 7 yuan year - on - year [1] - The 91 spread is 158 yuan per ton, up 2 yuan year - on - year; the 15 spread is 45 yuan per ton, down 2 yuan year - on - year; the mainstream spot basis is 293 yuan per ton, down 3 yuan year - on - year [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - Pakistan has approved the import of 500,000 tons of sugar; the MIX in the central - southern region of Brazil has increased significantly year - on - year; the monsoon precipitation in India is higher than the long - period average (LPA) [1] - Brazil exported 3.36 million tons of sugar in June, a 5% year - on - year increase; China imported 350,000 tons of sugar in May [1] 3. Domestic Market - CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season will be 11.16 million tons, consumption will be 15.8 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons; for the 25/26 season, production will be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons [2] - As of the end of May in the 24/25 season, the national sugar production was 11.16 million tons (+1.2 million tons), cumulative sales were 8.11 million tons (+1.52 million tons), and the cumulative sales rate was 72.7% [2] - As of the end of May in the 24/25 season, China imported 2.1 million tons of sugar (-1.04 million tons) [2] 4. International Market - ISO predicts a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 season (previously 4.88 million tons) [2] - As of June 16 in the 25/26 season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 14 percentage points year - on - year, and the cumulative sugar production was 9.4 million tons (-1.61 million tons), with the cumulative MIX up 2.12 percentage points year - on - year [2] - As of May 15 in the 24/25 season, India's sugar production was 25.74 million tons (-5.8 million tons) [2] - In the 24/25 season, Thailand's cumulative sugar production was 10.08 million tons (+1.27 million tons) [2] 5. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of sugar is 0, with a range of [-2, 2], indicating a neutral view [3]