烧碱：短期偏强震荡

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of caustic soda is rated as 1, indicating a "偏强" (relatively strong) outlook [4][5]. 2) Core View of the Report - The caustic soda market is expected to experience short - term strong and volatile trends. The impact of liquid chlorine on cost and supply is crucial. If substantial production cuts or load reductions occur, a bullish view can be taken [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - The 09 - contract futures price is 2531, the cheapest deliverable spot 32% caustic soda price in Shandong is 810, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 123, and the base difference is provided on July 9, 2025 [1]. 3.2 Spot News - Based on the Shandong region, the price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda closed at 810 yuan/ton today, with a month - on - month increase of 2.33%. The purchase price of liquid caustic soda by major downstream enterprises has been raised, and due to the subsidy of liquid chlorine, the operating load of regional enterprises has changed, resulting in a decrease in supply and an increase in the price of liquid caustic soda [2]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - The recent rebound in caustic soda futures prices is mainly due to the faster - than - expected decline in liquid chlorine prices, increasing the possibility of passive production cuts in caustic soda. The short - term spot price rebound is due to low prices stimulating phased replenishment demand. - In July, the maintenance capacity of caustic soda decreased significantly compared to June, with maintenance mainly concentrated in the Northwest and East China. The previously shut - down plants in Shandong will gradually restart. The new production capacity from June to July may reach 1.1 million tons, so the supply pressure remains high. - On the demand side, non - aluminum demand support is weak, and the caustic soda inventory of alumina is high, but the export direction provides good support, and the willingness to replenish at low prices is strong. - In terms of cost, although the electricity price continued to decline in July, the rapid decline of liquid chlorine led to an increase in caustic soda costs. Overall, due to the impact of liquid chlorine, the far - month valuation is being repaired. The key is to focus on the impact of liquid chlorine on caustic soda supply. [3]