Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the bond market, it is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution should be exercised [6][7] - For the stock index, the long - term performance is optimistic, and considering going long on stock index futures is recommended [9][10] - For precious metals, the long - term bull market trend is expected to continue, and considering going long on gold futures is advised [11][12] - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, short - term rallies can be considered for shorting [13] - For iron ore, low - level buying opportunities can be considered [15] - For coking coal and coke, short - term rallies can be considered for shorting [17] - For ferroalloys, the overall price is under pressure, and long - position investors need to be cautious [19][20][21] - For crude oil, the main contract can be considered for long - position opportunities [22][23][24] - For fuel oil, the main contract can be considered for long - position opportunities [25][26] - For synthetic rubber, wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rally [27][28] - For natural rubber, it may experience weak fluctuations in the short term, and mid - term long - position opportunities can be monitored [28][29] - For PVC, it is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [30][32] - For urea, it may fluctuate in the short term and be treated with a bullish view in the medium term [33][34] - For PX, it may oscillate and adjust in the short term, and participation should be cautious [35] - For PTA, it may oscillate and adjust in the short term, and light - position participation is recommended [36][37] - For ethylene glycol, short - term supply - demand weakening suppresses the market, and interval participation is recommended [38] - For staple fiber, follow the cost side with light positions and monitor opportunities to widen processing margins [39][40] - For bottle chips, it is expected to oscillate following the cost side, and cautious participation is recommended [41] - For soda ash, the long - term oversupply situation is difficult to alleviate, and the price may be under pressure [42] - For glass, the actual supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious drivers, and the market sentiment is weak [44][45] - For caustic soda, the overall supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price may have limited upward momentum [46][47] - For pulp, the pulp price is expected to oscillate and adjust, and the price of household paper may remain weakly stalemated [48][49][50] - For lithium carbonate, the supply - demand surplus situation remains unchanged, and investors should not chase high prices [51] - For copper, the price may be supported by China's stimulus policies in the second half of the year [52] - For tin, the price is expected to oscillate strongly [53] - For nickel, the price is expected to oscillate [54] - For soybean oil and soybean meal, consider long - position opportunities for soybean meal at low - level support intervals and call option opportunities for soybean oil at support intervals after pullbacks [55][56][57] - For palm oil, consider opportunities to widen the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [58][60] - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider long - position opportunities for the oil - meal ratio [61][62] - For cotton, it is recommended to short at high prices [63][64][65] - For sugar, it is expected to oscillate within a range [66][68][69] - For apples, consider short - position opportunities at high prices [70][71] - For live pigs, consider temporary observation [71][72] - For eggs, consider holding short positions [73][74][75] - For corn and corn starch, it is advisable to observe [76][77][78] - For logs, it is expected to oscillate and adjust before the first delivery [79][80][81] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Bond Market - On the previous trading day, bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank conducted 69 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 62 billion yuan on the day. Trump extended the tariff suspension period to August 1st. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is recommended to be cautious [5][6] Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. In June 2025, the retail sales of passenger cars increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and going long on stock index futures can be considered [8][9] Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The R & D of platinum and palladium futures is in the final stage. The complex global trade and financial environment, central bank gold purchases, and potential Fed rate cuts are favorable for precious metals, and going long on gold futures can be considered [11] Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coils) - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated. The important meeting triggered expectations of supply contraction, but the downward trend of the real estate industry and over - capacity still suppress prices. It is recommended to short on rallies [13] Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The iron water output decreased, and the supply increased. The supply - demand pattern weakened marginally. It is recommended to buy at low levels [15] Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated slightly. The meeting triggered supply contraction expectations, but the over - capacity still exists. It is recommended to short on rallies [17] Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese silicon rose slightly, and ferrosilicon fell slightly. The supply of manganese ore increased, and the demand for ferroalloys was weak. The overall price is under pressure, and long - position investors need to be cautious [19] Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. OPEC + will increase production in August and September, and the market has stabilized after a decline. It is recommended to go long on the main contract [22][23][24] Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated upward. The Asian fuel oil market is under pressure due to oversupply and weak demand. The increase in Singapore's fuel oil inventory is negative, but the easing of tariff friction is positive. It is recommended to go long on the main contract [25][26] Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber rose. The raw material cost decreased, and the profit turned positive. The supply is relatively loose in the short term. Wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rally [27][28] Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber rose. Domestic rainfall affected tapping, and overseas shipments increased supply pressure. The demand is weak, and the price may fluctuate weakly [28][29] PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC rose slightly. The production is expected to decline, the demand has no improvement, and the cost support is weak. The price is expected to remain weak [30][32] Urea - On the previous trading day, urea rose. The demand is expected to improve this week, and the inventory will be reduced. The price may oscillate strongly in the short term and be bullish in the medium term [33][34] PX - On the previous trading day, PX rose slightly. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand was stable. The cost support is weak. The price may oscillate and adjust in the short term [35] PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA rose slightly. The supply decreased, and the demand decreased slightly. The cost support is weak. The price may oscillate and adjust in the short term [36][37] Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol fell. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand decreased. The inventory increased slightly. The price may be under pressure in the short term [38] Staple Fiber - On the previous trading day, staple fiber fell slightly. The supply was stable, and the demand was weak. The cost support was weak. Follow the cost side with light positions [39][40] Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, bottle chips fell slightly. The raw material price decreased, but the device maintenance increased, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to oscillate following the cost side [41] Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash rose. The production decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. The long - term oversupply situation is difficult to alleviate, and the price may be under pressure [42] Glass - On the previous trading day, glass remained unchanged. The production line was stable, and the supply - demand fundamentals had no obvious drivers. The market sentiment was weak [44][45] Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda rose. The production decreased slightly, and the demand was stable. The overall supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price may have limited upward momentum [46][47] Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp rose slightly. The downstream demand was weak, and the supply pressure increased. The pulp price is expected to oscillate and adjust, and the household paper price may remain weakly stalemated [48][49][50] Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate rose. The central government's policy triggered supply - side reform expectations, but the supply - demand surplus situation remains unchanged. Investors should not chase high prices [51] Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated upward. The spot price decreased slightly. The price may be supported by China's stimulus policies in the second half of the year [52] Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The mine supply was tight. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [53] Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The downstream demand was weak. The price is expected to oscillate [54] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean meal fell, and soybean oil rose. The good weather in the US soybean - producing areas strengthened the harvest expectation. The domestic supply is relatively loose, and the cost support increased. Consider long - position opportunities for soybean meal at low - level support intervals and call option opportunities for soybean oil at support intervals after pullbacks [55][56][57] Palm Oil - On the previous trading day, palm oil is expected to rise. The threat of US tariffs may reduce Indonesia's exports. The Malaysian inventory is expected to decrease. Consider opportunities to widen the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [58][60] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - On the previous trading day, rapeseed and rapeseed oil rebounded. The domestic import of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal decreased. Consider long - position opportunities for the oil - meal ratio [61][62] Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic cotton fluctuated. The US cotton growing conditions are good, and the global supply - demand is expected to be loose. It is recommended to short at high prices [63][64][65] Sugar - On the previous trading day, domestic sugar oscillated. The Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, and the domestic inventory is low. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [66][68][69] Apples - On the previous trading day, apple futures fell slightly. The production is expected to increase slightly this year. It is recommended to short at high prices [70][71] Live Pigs - Yesterday, the national average price of live pigs rose slightly. The northern pig prices rebounded, and the southern pig prices were mostly stable. The consumption is weak in summer. It is recommended to observe temporarily [71][72] Eggs - On the previous trading day, the egg price decreased. The egg production increased, and the cost decreased. It is recommended to hold short positions [73][74][75] Corn and Corn Starch - On the previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures fell. The good weather in the US strengthened the harvest expectation. The domestic supply - demand is approaching balance, and it is advisable to observe [76][77][78] Logs - On the previous trading day, log futures fell slightly. The overseas export willingness decreased, and the domestic inventory decreased. It is expected to oscillate and adjust before the first delivery [79][80][81]
西南期货早间评论-20250709
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-07-09 02:33