尿素早评：供应仍有压力，转机在于出口-20250709

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of urea remains high, with high daily production. Although the enterprise inventory decreased slightly last week mainly due to increased port collection, the upstream enterprise inventory is still around 880,000 tons [1]. - The top - dressing demand in July will support the urea price, so there may be opportunities for low - buying in July. However, if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand cannot make up for it, the urea price will face significant downward pressure, and the subsequent turning point lies in exports [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Price Changes - Futures Prices: On July 8, compared with July 7, UR01 rose from 1712 yuan/ton to 1723 yuan/ton (up 0.64%), UR05 rose from 1716 yuan/ton to 1727 yuan/ton (up 0.64%), UR09 rose from 1748 yuan/ton to 1763 yuan/ton (up 0.86%), and the price in Shanxi rose from 1670 yuan/ton to 1680 yuan/ton (up 0.60%) [1]. - Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule): Prices in Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged on July 8 compared with July 7 [1]. - Upstream Costs: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged on July 8 compared with July 7 [1]. - Downstream Prices: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged on July 8 compared with July 7. The price of melamine in Shandong decreased from 5050 yuan/ton to 5023 yuan/ton (down 0.53%), and the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased from 104 yuan/ton to 93 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 remained unchanged at - 4 yuan/ton [1]. 3. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1745 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1769 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1737 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1763 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1755 yuan/ton, and the holding volume was 214,386 lots [1]. 4. Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, UR showed a strong sideways movement, closing at 1763. There may be low - buying opportunities in July, but attention should be paid to the impact of the change in domestic agricultural demand and export demand on prices [1].