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高盛:光模块_连接率上升助力更可持续增长;上调目标价和评级
Goldman Sachs·2025-07-09 02:40

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Eoptolink and Innolight, with target prices raised significantly to reflect updated volume estimates and market conditions [73]. Core Insights - The optical transceiver industry is expected to experience robust growth driven by a rising attach ratio of transceivers to GPUs and ASICs, with significant increases in volume estimates for 800G and 1.6T transceivers [2][7]. - The demand for 800G transceivers is projected to reach 19.9 million units in 2025 and 33.5 million units in 2026, representing increases of 10% and 58% respectively [2][16]. - The report highlights two key investment themes: the potential for second-tier transceiver makers like HG Tech to benefit from demand overflow and the valuation convergence between Eoptolink and Innolight [3][44]. Summary by Sections Industry Outlook - The optical transceiver market is expected to grow by 60% in 2025 and 52% in 2026 in dollar terms, primarily driven by higher volumes of 800G and 1.6T transceivers [16][73]. - The attach ratio of transceivers to GPUs is increasing, with the latest B300 GPU requiring 4 to 4.5 transceivers, compared to 2 to 3 for earlier models [8][53]. Company-Specific Insights - Eoptolink's target price has been raised from Rmb 97.1 to Rmb 177, reflecting an 82% increase, while Innolight's target price has been adjusted from Rmb 115 to Rmb 160, a 39% increase [73]. - Eoptolink is expected to achieve a net profit growth of 163% in 2025, while Innolight is projected to grow by 43% in the same year [74]. Investment Themes - The report identifies HG Tech as a potential beneficiary of demand overflow due to its established capacity and ongoing product testing for 800G transceivers [44][50]. - The convergence in valuation between Eoptolink and Innolight is anticipated, with Eoptolink trading at a discount despite similar profit levels and growth rates [26][27]. Key Metrics - The report outlines significant changes in revenue and net profit estimates for the companies covered, with Eoptolink's net profit expected to increase by up to 42% from 2025 to 2027 [2][73]. - The optical transceiver market is projected to require substantial new capacity to meet the anticipated demand, particularly for 800G transceivers [45][72].