甲醇日评：择机做多MTO利润-20250709

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report believes that methanol may experience a short - term weak and volatile trend. Methanol is relatively over - valued as upstream coal - based profits are still high while downstream comprehensive profits are relatively poor. Currently, the supply - demand drive for methanol is not strong, and the basis in the East China region needs to converge. With the easing of geopolitical conflicts, the tight situation of port spot goods has been alleviated, and the basis may converge through a decline in East China spot prices. It is recommended to wait for an opportunity to go long on MTO profits, and the 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2300 - 2500, with a unilateral suggestion to wait and see [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures and Spot Prices and Their Differences - Methanol Futures Prices: On July 8, 2025, MA01 closed at 2420 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.62%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2347 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (-0.47%); MA09 closed at 2373 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.79%) [1]. - Methanol Spot Prices: The daily average spot prices in different regions on July 8, 2025, showed declines in most areas. For example, the price in Taicang was 2405 yuan/ton, down 17.5 yuan/ton (-0.72%); in Shandong, it was 2275 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.66%); in Shaanxi, it was 2070 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-1.19%) [1]. - Price Differences: The difference between Taicang spot and MA was - 15 yuan/ton on July 8, 2025, down 2.5 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. 3.2. Upstream Costs - Coal Spot Prices: The prices of Binshui Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged at 427.5 yuan/ton, 487.5 yuan/ton, and 490 yuan/ton respectively on July 8, 2025 [1]. - Industrial Natural Gas Prices: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively on July 8, 2025 [1]. 3.3. Profit Situation - Methanol Production Profits: On July 8, 2025, the profit of coal - based methanol was 423.40 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-2.31%) from the previous day; the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained at - 460 yuan/ton [1]. - MTO and Downstream Profits: The profit of Northwest MTO was 418 yuan/ton, up 40.20 yuan/ton (10.64%); the profit of East China MTO was - 792.07 yuan/ton, up 21.50 yuan/ton (2.64%). Among downstream products, MTBE's profit increased significantly from - 10.12 yuan/ton to 13.64 yuan/ton (234.78%) [1]. 3.4. Information - Domestic Information: The main methanol contract MA2509 showed a weak decline, opening at 2396 yuan/ton, closing at 2373 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 623,078 lots and an open interest of 694,298 lots, showing increased volume and open interest [1]. - Foreign Information: The reference negotiation price for non - Iranian methanol shipments arriving in the far - future is 272 - 279 US dollars/ton. There are few active fixed - price offers. Some non - Iranian shipments arriving in the far - future are offered at a +2% premium. For other Middle - East regions, the reference negotiation price for shipments arriving in the far - future is at a +0.8 - 2% premium, with some factories willing to sell at a +5% premium and buyers willing to purchase at a +0.8 - 0.9% premium [1]. 3.5. Trading Strategy - The previous trading day saw MA oscillating lower, closing at 2366 at night. The 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2300 - 2500. It is suggested to wait and see on a unilateral basis and wait for an opportunity to go long on MTO profits [1].