新世纪期货交易提示（2025-7-9）-20250709

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Rebound [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Fluctuation [2] - Rolled Steel and Rebar: Fluctuation [2] - Glass: Rebound [2] - Soda Ash: Fluctuation [2] - SSE 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Fluctuation [2] - CSI 500 Index: Uptrend [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Uptrend [4] - 2 - year Treasury Bond: Fluctuation [4] - 5 - year Treasury Bond: Fluctuation [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: High - level Fluctuation [4] - Silver: High - level Fluctuation [4] - Pulp: Fluctuation [6] - Logs: Fluctuation [6] - Soybean Oil: Fluctuation with a Slight Uptrend [6] - Palm Oil: Fluctuation with a Slight Uptrend [6] - Rapeseed Oil: Fluctuation with a Slight Uptrend [6] - Soybean Meal: Fluctuation with a Slight Downtrend [6] - Rapeseed Meal: Fluctuation with a Slight Downtrend [6] - No. 2 Soybeans: Fluctuation with a Slight Downtrend [6] - No. 1 Soybeans: Fluctuation with a Slight Downtrend [6] - Live Pigs: Rebound [7] - Rubber: Rebound [9] - PX: Wait - and - See [9] - PTA: Try Shorting at High Prices [9] - MEG: Try Shorting at High Prices [9] - PR: Wait - and - See [9] - PF: Wait - and - See [9] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities and financial products including the black industry, financial products, light industry products, agricultural products, and soft commodities. It provides investment ratings and market outlooks based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and international events [2][4][6][7][9] Summary by Categories Black Industry - Iron Ore: Short - term rebound due to emotional disturbances, with long - term supply increasing, demand remaining low, and port inventories entering a replenishment cycle. Focus on whether the 2509 contract can break through 740 yuan/ton [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Driven by supply - side reform news and Tangshan production restrictions, prices rise. Supply is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the trends of hot metal and coal - coke supply [2] - Rolled Steel and Rebar: "Anti - involution" boosts supply - side sentiment. In the off - season, demand shows a slight rebound, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The overall pattern is high in the first half and low in the second half of the year [2] - Glass: There is no substantial improvement in fundamentals. Speculative sentiment is ignited in some areas. In the long - term, demand is difficult to recover significantly. In the short - term, it rebounds slightly [2] - Soda Ash: In the long - term, the real estate industry is in an adjustment period, and glass demand is weak. In the short - term, the valuation is relatively low, and the price is affected by emotions [2] Financial Products - Stock Index Futures/Options: Data reflects China's economic resilience, and market risk - aversion sentiment eases. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [4] - Treasury Bonds: Market interest rates are consolidating, and treasury bonds show a narrow - range rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly [4] - Gold and Silver: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and multiple factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and inflation data affect prices. Gold is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [4] Light Industry Products - Pulp: The pulp market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The cost support weakens, and prices are expected to fluctuate [6] - Logs: Spot prices are stable, supply pressure eases, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. Attention should be paid to the impact of log futures delivery on prices [6] Agricultural Products - Oils and Fats: Malaysian palm oil production decreases, and exports are strong. Domestic oil inventories are rising, and oils and fats are expected to fluctuate slightly upward, with palm oil relatively stronger [6] - Meal Products: U.S. soybean production is good, and domestic soybean arrivals are large. Meal products are expected to fluctuate slightly downward [6] - Live Pigs: Supply is tightening, and prices are rising. Terminal procurement enthusiasm increases, and prices are expected to continue rising [7] Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply is affected by weather, and demand shows a structural recovery. Inventory is in a state of adjustment, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely [9] - PX: Supply and demand are tight in the short - term, and prices follow oil prices [9] - PTA: In the medium - term, supply and demand weaken, and prices follow costs in the short - term [9] - MEG: Supply pressure increases, and prices are under pressure [9] - PR and PF: The market may be stable or weaken, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [9]