贵金属日评：中国央行6月续增持黄金储备，特朗普政府开始对各国设定新税率-20250709

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report Due to the expected expansion of the US fiscal deficit, the possibility of the Fed still cutting interest rates, continuous gold purchases by central banks around the world, and persistent geopolitical risks, precious metal prices are likely to rise rather than fall. Investors are advised to take long positions on dips. The report suggests paying attention to the support and resistance levels of London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Market Data: Shanghai gold futures active contract closed at 776.22 yuan/g, up 4.92 yuan from the previous day; spot Shanghai gold (T+D) closed at 771.51 yuan/g, up 3.71 yuan. COMEX futures active contract closed at 3346.40 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 202,143 lots and an open interest of 310,175 lots. London gold spot closed at 3314.75 dollars/ounce. SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 1.15 tons to 947.66 tons [1]. - Important Information: The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by 70,000 ounces in June, marking the 8th consecutive month of increases, with the pace of increase recovering. Trump's first - wave of tax hikes on 14 countries including Japan and South Korea, ranging from 25% to 40%, will take effect on August 1st. The EU may be close to an agreement. Although consumer inflation has rebounded significantly, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in July is almost zero due to the higher - than - expected and previous - value 147,000 new non - farm payrolls in the US in June, but the expected time for rate cuts remains September/October/December [1]. Silver - Market Data: Shanghai silver futures active contract closed at 8953.00 yuan/10g, with a trading volume of 261,611 lots and an open interest of 338,144 lots. Spot Shanghai silver (T+D) had a trading volume of 549,594 lots and an open interest of 3,325,506 lots. COMEX futures active contract closed at 36.93 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 202,143 lots and an open interest of 310,175 lots. London silver spot closed at 36.78 dollars/ounce. The US iShare Silver ETF holdings increased to 14,935.15 tons [1]. - Important Information: The US House of Representatives' version of the "Great Beautiful" bill was passed, planning to raise the debt ceiling to 5 trillion dollars, and the fiscal deficit expansion may exceed 3 trillion dollars. Trump's tariff policy remains in the spotlight [1]. Other Markets - Crude Oil: INE crude oil was at 510.70 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude was at 70.03 dollars/barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was at 68.18 dollars/barrel [1]. - Base Metals: Shanghai copper futures were at 79,270 yuan/ton, LME copper cash was at 9,665 dollars/ton, and Shanghai rebar was at 3,065 yuan/ton [1]. - Stock Indexes: The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,473.1271, the S&P 500 was at 6,225.5200, the UK FTSE 100 was at 8,806.5300, the French CAC40 was at 7,723.4700, the German DAX was at 24,073.6700, the Nikkei 225 was at 39,587.6800, and the South Korean Composite Index was at 3,114.9500 [1]. Central Bank Policies - European Central Bank: Cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, lowering the deposit mechanism rate to 2%. The manufacturing PMI in the eurozone and Germany (France) in June continued to rise, and the CPI annual rate was close to expectations but higher than the previous value. The market expects the ECB to cut interest rates 1 - 2 times by the end of 2025 [1]. - Bank of England: Cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% in June, and continued to reduce holdings of 100 billion pounds of government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025. The CPI (core CPI) annual rate in May was in line with expectations but lower than the previous value. The August rate - cut expectation is rising, and it may cut rates 2 - 3 times by the end of 2025 [1]. - Bank of Japan: Raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, raising the benchmark rate to 0.5%. It may start to reduce quarterly government bond purchases from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026. There is still an expectation of interest rate hikes by the end of 2025 [1].