North Copper(SZ:000737) Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-07-09 03:09Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - Amid the traditional consumption off - season in China, the total global electrolytic copper inventory has been continuously accumulating. However, due to the US imposing tariffs on imported copper leading to inter - market arbitrage trading and disruptions in overseas copper mine production or transportation, copper prices may fluctuate strongly. It is recommended that investors close their previous short positions at low prices and lightly test long positions on the main contract. Pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - Shanghai Copper Futures: On July 8, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,620, up 350 from the previous day; trading volume was 61,263 hands, down 14,051; open interest was 207,382 hands, up 2,876; inventory was 19,109 tons, down 2,573. The average price of SMN 1 electrolytic copper was 79,795, down 90 [2]. - London Copper: On July 8, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,665, down 119; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased by 102,500. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 51.31, down 28.49; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 10.76, down 16.61. The Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 8.2380, up 0.14 [2]. - COMEX Copper: On July 8, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 5.51, up 0.37; the total inventory was 221,788, up 834 [2]. Important Information - Macro: The US Senate - version "bill" was passed, planning to raise the debt ceiling to $5 trillion, with the fiscal deficit expected to expand by over $3 trillion. The Trump administration's tariff policy has not significantly affected consumption. The US ADP employment number in August was - 33,000, lower than expected and the previous value, reducing the probability of the Fed not cutting interest rates in July, but the expected interest - rate cut time is still September/October/December [3][4]. - Upstream: China's copper concentrate import index is negative but rising compared to last week. The departure (arrival) volume of copper concentrate at ports in the world (China) has decreased (increased). High - quality European scrap copper exports are restricted, and due to Sino - US trade disputes, traders are reluctant to accept US scrap copper. However, the positive price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and bright and aged scrap copper may increase the economic viability of scrap copper, and the scrap copper import window is open. Some copper smelters are affected by supply shortages and have stopped production. Domestic electrolytic copper production in July may increase month - on - month, while imports may be restricted, and the total inventory has increased [4]. - Downstream: Some copper processing enterprises plan to reduce production and inventory in July. The capacity utilization rate of various copper product enterprises has generally declined month - on - month. Affected by Sino - US tariffs and the traditional consumption off - season, the capacity utilization rate, production, import, and export volume of domestic steel enterprises in July may decline, except for copper foil whose capacity utilization rate may increase [4]. Company News - Northern Copper Industry (000737) stated that its produced rolled copper foil is an upstream product of the PCB business chain, with a current production capacity of 5,000 tons per year [2]. - The Indonesian Minister of the Interior requested the relaxation of the copper concentrate export ban on Amman Mineral International due to its impact on the local economy [2].