集运日报：美威胁铜与药品等关税，纽约铜隔夜大涨17%，宏观提振市场多头情绪，符合日报预期，建议轻仓参与或观望。-20250709

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game in the market is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [1][2]. - The short - term market may mainly rebound. Risk - preferring investors are advised to try to go long on the 2510 contract below 1300 and try to go short on the EC2512 contract above 1650, setting stop - loss and take - profit levels. In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage strategies. For the long - term, it is advised to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further judgments [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Sentiment and Macro Factors - The threat of US tariffs on copper and pharmaceuticals led to a 17% overnight increase in New York copper, boosting market bullish sentiment [1]. - Trump's tariff policies, including the postponement of the "reciprocal tariff" implementation to August 1st and the announcement of tariff rates for 14 trading partners, have an impact on the market. The market has digested the negative information, and bullish sentiment is high [2][4]. Shipping Indexes - On July 7, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2258.04 points, up 6.3% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1557.77 points, down 3.8% [1]. - On July 4, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1285.2 points, down 7.92% from the previous period; the European route was 1442.5 points, down 0.03%; the US West route was 1176.6 points, down 24.27% [1]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price on July 4 was 1763.49 points, down 98.02 points from the previous period. The SCFI European route price was 2101 USD/TEU, up 3.50%; the US West route was 2089 USD/FEU, down 18.97% [1]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index on July 4 was 1342.99 points, down 1.9% from the previous period; the European route was 1694.30 points, up 3.3%; the US West route was 1084.28 points, down 10.5% [1]. Futures Market - On July 8, the main contract 2508 closed at 2006.2, with a 7.16% increase, a trading volume of 57,700 lots, and an open interest of 35,100 lots, an increase of 536 lots from the previous day [2]. - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 16%, the margin is adjusted to 26%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [3]. PMI and Investor Confidence Index - The eurozone's June manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4, the service PMI was 50 (a two - month high), and the composite PMI was 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 [1]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May [1]. - The US June Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52, the service PMI was 53.1, and the composite PMI was 52.8 [1].