关税再起风波：影响与展望

Group 1: Tariff Changes and Impacts - The U.S. has issued tariff notices to 14 countries, raising tariffs to between 25% and 40%, affecting 14.2% of U.S. imports[1] - The weighted average tariff level in the U.S. is expected to rise by 5-6 percentage points to approximately 15-16%, the highest since 1940[2] - The tariffs on Vietnam will be adjusted to 20% for general goods and 40% for transshipment trade, impacting 18-19% of U.S. imports[2] Group 2: Future Projections and Risks - The number of countries receiving tariff notices may increase, particularly among European nations[6] - The effective tariff rates may stabilize between 30-40% for China, with potential structural changes in tariff categories[6] - Risks include a potential slowdown in global trade volume due to the impact of these tariffs, which could lead to a contraction in trade[6] Group 3: Investigations and Legal Considerations - The U.S. Department of Commerce is accelerating Section 232 investigations, which may lead to additional tariffs on key products like copper and semiconductors[3] - Legal uncertainties surrounding tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) may lead to adjustments in tariff strategies[3] - The contribution of tariffs based on Section 232 and 301 investigations is expected to increase, while IEEPA-based tariffs may decrease in significance[3]