Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel spot market is stable, while the futures market shows some resistance. The "anti - involution" rebound in futures prices has limited ability to drive up spot prices, and the basis has been rapidly compressed. There is an increasing probability of administrative production - limit interference in July - August. The market's expected and confidence have improved, which may help the spot market bottom out before the peak season [4]. - The sentiment in the coking coal and coke spot market is temporarily stable. The futures market has warmed up the spot market sentiment, and there are signs of a coke price increase. However, the overall fundamentals of carbon elements are weakening as coking coal supply recovers in July. The "anti - involution" policy may lead to a reduction in demand for the black industry rather than a contraction in supply [5][7]. - The short - term driving force for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is insufficient, and prices are mainly oscillating. The supply and demand of ferrosilicon are currently acceptable, while the supply of silicomanganese is increasing, and the supply - demand structure is relatively loose [8]. - In the iron ore market, under the "anti - involution" trading sentiment, the spot price has followed the rise and the basis has rebounded. It is not recommended to short the black market in the short term. Steel mills' profits remain high, and the daily average hot metal in July is expected to remain at a high level [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - On July 8, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3083 yuan/ton (-0.10%), HC2601 at 3200 yuan/ton (-0.03%), I2601 at 707 yuan/ton (0.07%), J2601 at 1470.50 yuan/ton (0.44%), and JM2601 at 891 yuan/ton (0.62%). For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3063 yuan/ton (-0.13%), HC2510 at 3191 yuan/ton (-0.06%), I2509 at 733 yuan/ton (0.14%), J2509 at 1424.50 yuan/ton (0.14%), and JM2509 at 843.50 yuan/ton (0.84%) [2]. - The cross - month spreads, spreads, ratios, and basis also had corresponding changes on July 8 [2]. Steel Industry - Steel spot is stable, and futures are slightly resistant. The "anti - involution" rebound has limited ability to drive up spot prices. There is a high probability of administrative production - limit interference in July - August. The market sentiment has improved, which may help the spot market bottom out before the peak season [4]. - The trading strategy is that the unilateral market turns to oscillation, and it is the time to enter the spot - futures positive arbitrage position as the basis approaches [4][10]. Coking Coal and Coke Industry - Spot sentiment is stable, with a rising voice for coke price increases. The futures market has driven the spot market to warm up. However, the overall fundamentals of carbon elements are weakening as coking coal supply recovers in July. The "anti - involution" policy may reduce demand for the black industry [5][7]. - The trading strategy is to mainly observe and control risks on the unilateral market and pay attention to whether the previous high will be broken [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Industry - The short - term driving force is insufficient, and prices are mainly oscillating. The supply and demand of ferrosilicon are currently acceptable, while the supply of silicomanganese is increasing, and the supply - demand structure is relatively loose [8]. - The trading strategy is to hold long - call options [10]. Iron Ore Industry - Under the "anti - involution" trading sentiment, the spot price has followed the rise and the basis has rebounded. It is not recommended to short the black market in the short term. Steel mills' profits remain high, and the daily average hot metal in July is expected to remain at a high level [9]. - The trading strategy is to mainly observe the market [9].
黑色金属数据日报-20250709
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-07-09 03:50