海外宏观情绪偏暖，原油强于化

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives mid - term outlooks for each energy and chemical product, including "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", and "oscillating strongly" [278]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overseas macro - sentiment is warm, and crude oil is stronger than chemicals. The extension of the "reciprocal tariff" suspension period by the US boosts the risk appetite of the commodity market, and the imbalance in crude oil inventory accumulation and the strength of diesel cracking spreads lead to the limited impact of OPEC+ production increase on oil prices [1]. - The domestic chemical industry continues to oscillate and is looking for a new direction. Most energy and chemical products are currently showing weak supply - demand trends, with relatively small inventory pressure, and the fluctuation of the cost - end crude oil becomes the dominant factor [2]. - It is advisable to adopt an oscillating mindset towards the energy and chemical industry and wait for new supply - demand drivers [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News - Houthi rebels attacked a Liberian - flagged cargo ship in the Red Sea, causing at least two crew members to die. - Russia's daily crude oil shipments dropped to 312 million barrels as of July 6, the lowest since February, a 3% decrease from the previous period. - Ecuador's state - owned oil company declared force majeure due to potential damage to two parallel oil pipelines caused by heavy rainfall, and oil production decreased from 46 million barrels on July 1 to 33 million barrels on July 2. - EIA predicts that US oil production in 2025 will be 13.37 million barrels per day, lower than the previous forecast, and raises the expected average price of Brent crude oil futures in 2025 to $68.89 per barrel [5]. 3.2 Variety Analysis Crude Oil - Viewpoint: EIA's downward adjustment of production forecasts and Red Sea geopolitical events briefly boosted oil prices. - Logic: Macro and refined oil performances are good, but the upside space is limited. The reduction in Russia's seaborne exports, the increase in US crude oil inventories, and the decrease in refined oil inventories affect the market [4][6]. Asphalt - Viewpoint: The downward pressure on asphalt futures prices is relatively large. - Logic: OPEC+ over - production, sufficient domestic asphalt raw material supply, and weak demand lead to an over - estimated absolute price of asphalt [8][10]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Viewpoint: The downward pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices is relatively large. - Logic: OPEC+ over - production, the weakening of power generation demand, and the increase in import tariffs lead to an increase in supply and a decrease in demand [11]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Viewpoint: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices follow the oscillation of crude oil. - Logic: It follows crude oil, but faces shipping demand decline, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, with low valuation [12]. LPG - Viewpoint: The cost - end support weakens, the fundamental pattern of supply - demand remains loose, and the PG futures market may oscillate weakly. - Logic: The reduction of CP prices, the accumulation of US propane inventories, and weak domestic demand lead to a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [12][14]. PX - Viewpoint: The terminal start - up declines, and PX oscillates weakly. - Logic: OPEC+ is expected to maintain production increase, and the terminal market support is poor, with a downward trend in absolute prices [15]. PTA - Viewpoint: Terminal negative feedback causes PTA to oscillate weakly. - Logic: The expected weakening of the crude oil market, the increase in PTA spot circulation, and the possible reduction of downstream polyester factory production lead to a decline in the market [15]. Styrene - Viewpoint: Two sets of devices are planned to be put into production, and styrene oscillates weakly. - Logic: The supply - demand of styrene itself is expected to weaken, and port inventories accumulate, leading to a decline in spot prices [16]. Ethylene Glycol - Viewpoint: Overseas device restarts accelerate, and ethylene glycol continues to oscillate. - Logic: The supply pressure is increasing, and the 09 contract may continue to oscillate, while the 01 contract may face more pressure [18][19]. Short - Fiber - Viewpoint: The basis is stable, sales are sluggish, and short - fiber continues to oscillate. - Logic: Short - fiber sales have been weak for two weeks, and the downstream demand may reach an inflection point [19][20]. Bottle Chip - Viewpoint: It follows the fluctuation of raw materials, and the processing fee remains low. - Logic: Bottle chips are in the maintenance cycle, and the processing fee has limited downward space [20][22]. Methanol - Viewpoint: The port price continues to decline, and methanol oscillates downward. - Logic: Supply contraction during the maintenance period, weak terminal demand in the off - season, and the return of Iranian device operation lead to price oscillation [24]. Urea - Viewpoint: Supply and demand are both weak, and exports support the market. Urea may oscillate in the short term. - Logic: Indian urea import tenders boost the market, but supply and demand are both weak, and exports support the price [25]. LLDPE - Viewpoint: The US delays the tariff time - point, and LLDPE oscillates. - Logic: Oil price oscillation, weak raw material support, high supply, and low downstream demand lead to oscillation [27]. PP - Viewpoint: Maintenance slightly increases, and PP oscillates in the short term. - Logic: Oil price oscillation, weak cost - end support, high supply, and low downstream demand lead to oscillation [28]. PVC - Viewpoint: Low valuation and weak supply - demand lead to PVC oscillating. - Logic: New capacity is expected to be put into production, demand is in the off - season, and exports are difficult to increase, but market sentiment warms up [31]. Caustic Soda - Viewpoint: The spot rebound slows down, and caustic soda oscillates. - Logic: The increase in comprehensive cost provides support, while the procurement of large enterprises and the weakening of downstream demand limit the increase [32]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - Cross - Period Spread: Different varieties have different cross - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 1.14 with a change of - 0.01 [36]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data, like asphalt's basis being 236 with a change of - 18 and 91740 warehouse receipts [37]. - Cross - Variety Spread: There are cross - variety spread data and changes, such as the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread being - 254 with a change of 30 [39]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report lists the basis and spread monitoring of various chemicals such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data summaries are not provided in the text [40][52][63].