“反内卷”连带的减产预期利好暂告?段落，价格上涨逐步影响到成

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [6][8][9][11][13][14][16][17]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "anti - involution" associated production - cut expectation benefits have temporarily ended. Steel price upward momentum is weak due to impacts on finished product exports and lackluster spot price follow - up. However, high - temperature weather supports coal prices, and the iron ore shipment rush is basically over, with the furnace material fundamentals being acceptable. The industry's fundamentals are currently in a relatively balanced state, with limited contradictions in each link. Iron water has slightly declined but remains at a high level year - on - year, and steel inventories are low, limiting the downside space. In the short term, the market is expected to oscillate within a range, and future attention should be paid to policy implementation and the degree of demand weakening [1][2][6]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Overseas mines have basically ended their quarterly shipment rush this week, with a decline in shipments. The arrival volume at 45 ports has slightly increased but fallen short of expectations, and there may be a concentrated arrival in the next 1 - 2 weeks. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises has remained stable, and steel enterprises' iron water production has slightly decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year. Due to the lower - than - expected arrival volume and high demand, port inventories have slightly decreased, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [2][8]. 3.2 Carbon Element - Two coal mines in Linfen and Changzhi, Shanxi, resumed production last weekend, with a total production capacity of 8.4 million tons, and the regional supply has recovered. Other regions' coal mines have basically maintained their previous production rhythms, and the overall supply is gradually increasing. On the import side, the Mongolian coal port transactions are active, and the regulatory area inventory continues to decline, but the China - Mongolia port will be closed from this Friday to next Tuesday. On the demand side, coke production has slightly decreased, and there is still short - term rigid demand for coking coal. Downstream coking enterprises are actively purchasing, but there are signs of market waiting due to the expectation of coal mine复产. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent, and future attention should be paid to coal mine复产 and Mongolian coal imports [3]. 3.3 Alloys - Manganese alloys: Manganese ore prices have slightly declined. With the gradual recovery of Australian ore shipments, a slight increase in port inventory, and the arrival of forward low - price futures ore, there is further downward space for ore prices. On the supply side, in a profit - recovery environment, manufacturers' motivation to resume production has increased, and the daily production of manganese silicon has increased for 7 consecutive weeks. On the demand side, the finished product output is currently at a high level and stable, but the terminal steel demand is in the off - season, the steel inventory reduction has slowed down, and there is a possibility of a slight decline in finished product output. Attention should be paid to the guidance of the bidding price of the landmark steel mill on the market [3]. - Silicon iron: The supply - demand relationship of silicon iron is relatively healthy, but there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, which increases the difficulty of market inventory reduction. The upward driving force for silicon iron prices is insufficient, but the industry is still in a loss state. With cost support, the short - term futures market is expected to oscillate [3][6][16]. 3.4 Glass - In the off - season, glass demand is declining, the deep - processing demand has continued to weaken, and upstream inventories are accumulating, with off - season pressure still existing. The sales in Shahe are average, mainly driven by rigid demand. On the supply side, there are still 3 production lines waiting to produce glass, and one production line is planned to resume production soon, so the supply - side pressure still exists. Upstream inventories have slightly decreased, and the internal contradictions are not prominent. Recently, the "anti - involution" sentiment has increased, and the market's concern about supply - side production cuts has risen. In the medium term, it remains to be seen whether downstream demand can be stimulated [6][13]. 3.5 Soda Ash - The over - supply pattern of soda ash has not changed. There are rumors that the photovoltaic industry is "anti - involution", with an expected significant reduction in daily melting volume. Currently, the photovoltaic daily melting volume has slightly decreased, the demand for heavy soda ash has flattened, and the demand expectation is weak. The downstream demand for light soda ash is weak, and manufacturers have continued to reduce prices. Emotions are interfering with the futures market, and the long - term over - supply pattern is difficult to change. It is recommended that enterprises seize the short - term positive - feedback hedging opportunities [6][13]. 3.6 Specific Product Analyses - Steel: Overseas tariffs are constantly disturbing, and after the steel price increase, there are signs of a marginal weakening in steel export pressure. The off - season fundamentals of steel have limited contradictions, and the off - season pressure remains to be observed. In the short term, the futures market is expected to oscillate, and future attention should be paid to domestic and overseas policy disturbances and the sustainability of off - season demand [8]. - Iron ore: The demand for iron ore is at a high level, and the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not obvious. After this round of upward movement, the futures price has reached an important resistance level, and the spot market is still mainly in a wait - and - see state. In the short term, the ore price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the maintenance situation in Tangshan [8]. - Scrap steel: The supply and demand of scrap steel have both weakened marginally, and its own driving force is insufficient. After the macro - environment cools down, the price is expected to oscillate [9]. - Coke: The supply and demand of coke are gradually tightening, and the expectation of price increases is strengthening. In the short term, the futures market is expected to oscillate, and future attention should be paid to whether the coal price can continue to rise [10][11][12]. - Coking coal: The upstream coal mines are still reducing inventories, and the spot price is temporarily stable. In the short term, the futures market is expected to oscillate, and future attention should be paid to coal mine复产 and Mongolian coal imports [11][13][14]. - Silicon manganese: The supply - demand relationship of silicon manganese is becoming more relaxed, and the difficulty of market inventory reduction is increasing. The upward driving force for futures prices is insufficient, but with cost support, the price's downside space is limited. In the short term, the futures market is expected to oscillate [15]. - Silicon iron: The current supply - demand relationship of silicon iron is relatively healthy, but there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, increasing the difficulty of market inventory reduction. The upward driving force for silicon iron prices is insufficient, but with cost support, the short - term futures market is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of silicon iron's electricity cost [16].