降息预期收敛与关税担忧博弈，?价震荡

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Gold prices are in a state of oscillation due to the game between the convergence of interest - rate cut expectations and concerns about tariffs, and the market is waiting for the Fed's June meeting minutes [2] - The uncertainty of Trump's tariff plan provides support for the gold price, limiting its downside space, and the tariff dynamics and the Fed's June meeting minutes will be the main focus of gold market traders [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Key Information - On July 7, US President Trump stated that starting from August 1, he will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imported products from 14 countries including Japan and South Korea [3] - German Deputy Chancellor and Finance Minister Lindner emphasized that the EU is still willing to remain open and continue negotiations but will not accept any unequal conditions [3] - US President Trump signed an executive order on Monday instructing federal agencies to strengthen the provisions in the "Great American Act" to abolish or modify tax credits for solar and wind energy projects [3] Price Logic - The failure of the gold price to break through $3350 is mainly due to the cooling of the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in July, which weakens the attractiveness of gold. Although Trump's tariff announcement has short - term stimulated the safe - haven demand for gold, the stabilization of the US dollar has limited the rebound of the gold price [4] - The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in the face of potential tariff inflation pressure, as reflected by the sharp rise of the US dollar against the yen and the upward movement of US Treasury yields [4] Outlook - The weekly COMEX gold price is expected to be in the range of [3200, 3450], and the weekly COMEX silver price is expected to be in the range of [35, 38] [5]