多品种小幅波动，震荡整理

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Oscillating Bullish [4] - Protein Meal: Oscillating [6] - Corn and Starch: Oscillating [7] - Hogs: Oscillating [8] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [11] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [13] - Cotton: Oscillating [13] - Sugar: Long - term: Oscillating Bearish; Short - term: Oscillating [14] - Pulp: Oscillating [15] - Logs: Oscillating Weakly [16] 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural product market shows a pattern of multi - variety small fluctuations and oscillating consolidation. Each variety is affected by different factors such as supply and demand, weather, policies, and international trade relations, resulting in different price trends and outlooks [1]. - After the end of the delivery game, the market gradually returns to being dominated by fundamentals. For example, the log market is expected to maintain an oscillating range in the medium term [2]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - View: Oscillating bullish. The market is affected by multiple factors, with overseas biodiesel demand expectations being optimistic, the growth of US soybeans being good, the marginal reduction of the production increase pressure of Malaysian palm oil in June, palm oil still being in the production increase season, high domestic rapeseed oil inventory, and the expected decrease in rapeseed imports [4]. - Information: As of July 6, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%. The US "Big and Beautiful" Act boosts the demand expectation of US biodiesel for US soybean oil. Brazil will increase the biodiesel blending ratio from 14% to 15% on August 1. The inventory of domestic imported soybeans is rising, and the expected increase in the production of Malaysian palm oil in June is limited [4]. - Logic: Due to good weather in the US soybean - producing areas and concerns about trade disputes, US soybeans fell on Monday, while domestic oils and fats oscillated and rose on Tuesday, with palm oil being relatively strong. The macro - environment and industrial factors jointly affect the price trends of oils and fats [4]. 3.2 Protein Meal - View: Oscillating. Internationally, US soybeans are expected to oscillate in a range. Domestically, soybean meal inventories continue to accumulate [6]. - Information: On July 7, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes were as follows: US Gulf soybeans were 223 cents/bu, unchanged week - on - week; US West soybeans were 196 cents/bu, unchanged week - on - week; South American soybeans were 220 cents/bu, unchanged week - on - week. On July 8, the average profit of domestic imported soybean crushing was - 8.72 yuan/ton [5]. - Logic: Internationally, factors such as the cancellation of relevant US economic and trade restrictive measures against China, the good growth of US soybeans, and the increase in Brazilian soybean premiums are intertwined. Domestically, the increase in soybean arrivals, the peak of oil mill crushing, and the insufficient downstream replenishment lead to an increase in soybean meal inventories [6]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - View: Oscillating. The futures price reached a new low, and the auction turnover became lighter [7]. - Information: The mainstream spot price of corn in Jinzhou Port was 2310 - 2330 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; the spot price in Guangdong Port was 2420 - 2440 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. - Logic: In the futures market, some short - sellers took profits and left the market, and the bearish sentiment was released. In the spot market, the number of waiting vehicles in North China's deep - processing plants decreased, and the enthusiasm of the trading sector to sell increased [8]. 3.4 Hogs - View: Oscillating. The supply - side reform expectation boosts the sentiment of hog futures, but there is still supply pressure in the medium and long term [8]. - Information: On July 8, the price of live hogs (external ternary) in Henan was 15.05 yuan/kg, with a month - on - month change of 0.33%; the closing price of the hog futures active contract was 14,275 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0.21% [8]. - Logic: In the short term, the macro - control brings positive market sentiment, and the pressure on group - farm slaughter is partially released. In the medium and long term, the abundant supply of sows and the continuous increase in the number of piglets born since the beginning of the year bring supply pressure [8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - View: Oscillating. It maintains an oscillating range, and there is no major contradiction at present [11]. - Information: As of July 8, the prices of various rubber raw materials and products were reported, and the total number of US tire imports in the first five months of 2025 increased by 6.4% year - on - year [9]. - Logic: The supply side is affected by the rainy season, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand side is relatively stable in the short term but weak in the long - term expectation. Overall, it is in a state of pressure [11]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - View: Oscillating. The unexpected incident of the device quickly pushed up the market, but the fundamentals are still under pressure [13]. - Information: The spot prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene in different regions changed [12]. - Logic: The fire in a refinery's device affected the market sentiment, but the butadiene market is still facing problems such as weak demand and increasing supply pressure [13]. 3.7 Cotton - View: Oscillating in the short term, with a reference range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton. The new crop has an expected increase in production, which restricts the upside space of the market, while the low inventory of old crops provides support [13]. - Information: As of July 8, the number of registered warehouse receipts in the 24/25 season was 9971, and the closing price of Zhengzhou Cotton 09 was 13,785 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton month - on - month [13]. - Logic: The new cotton in China and other major producing countries has an expected increase in production. The downstream is in the off - season, and the inventory is increasing. The commercial inventory of cotton has been decreasing, but the rate has slowed down recently [13]. 3.8 Sugar - View: Long - term: Oscillating bearish; short - term: Oscillating. The new sugar - making season is expected to have a loose supply, and the price has a downward driving force [14]. - Information: As of July 7, the closing price of Zhengzhou Sugar 09 contract was 5747 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton month - on - month [14]. - Logic: The global sugar market is expected to have a loose supply in the 25/26 season. Brazil's sugar production is uncertain, India's monsoon rainfall is beneficial to sugarcane growth, and the domestic sugar market has a high sales rate but increasing import pressure [14]. 3.9 Pulp - View: Oscillating. The warm atmosphere in the financial market cannot change the weak atmosphere of pulp [15]. - Information: The prices of various pulp products in Shandong remained unchanged, and the new round of quotes from Chile's Arauco Company for July were reported [15]. - Logic: The supply - demand relationship of pulp is weak, but the price is at a low level, and there is a risk in short - selling. It is recommended to hold short positions and not chase short [15]. 3.10 Logs - View: Oscillating weakly. The market is expected to maintain an oscillating range of 760 - 830 in the medium term [17]. - Information: The delivery situation of the 07 contract has affected the market, and the daily出库 volume of logs in July is more than 60,000 cubic meters [16]. - Logic: The demand for logs is stable throughout the year, and the inventory reduction is slow. The new foreign quotation increase reflects the strong willingness of domestic traders to buy at the bottom. After the end of the delivery game, the market returns to being dominated by fundamentals [17].