中国期货每日简报-20250709

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 8th, equity index futures rose while CGB futures fell; most commodity futures rose, with SCFIS(Europe) and poly - silicon rising by 7% [2][10][13] - The top three gainers were SCFIS(Europe), poly - silicon, and silicon metal, while the top three decliners were egg, ethenylbenzene, and rapeseed meal [11][12][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On July 8th, equity index futures increased, CGB futures decreased. Among commodity futures, there were more gainers. SCFIS(Europe) and poly - silicon rose 7%. The top three gainers were SCFIS(Europe) (7.2% increase, 1.6% month - on - month open interest increase), poly - silicon (7.0% increase, 5.1% month - on - month open interest increase), and silicon metal (2.8% increase, 0.6% month - on - month open interest increase). The top three decliners were egg (1.3% decrease, 4.4% month - on - month open interest decrease), ethenylbenzene (1.1% decrease, 0.9% month - on - month open interest decrease), and rapeseed meal (0.9% decrease, 0.4% month - on - month open interest increase) [10][11][13] 3.1.2 Daily Rise 3.1.2.1 Silicon Metal - On July 8th, silicon metal rose 2.8% to 8215 yuan/ton. The fundamental surplus pattern remained unchanged, and the price rebound was driven by policy expectations. Short - term "anti - involution" sentiment was strong, but adjustment risks due to sentiment cooling should be guarded against. Northwest factories' sudden production cuts strengthened price support. If the production - cut scope expanded, July's supply - demand situation might improve marginally; otherwise, the oversupply pressure would be hard to ease. In the southwest, the resumption of production was slower than in previous years, but some factories had restarted. As prices rose, enterprises' willingness to resume production and hedge increased, which might exacerbate supply - side pressure. Demand was weak, and inventory might accumulate again [17][18][20] 3.1.2.2 Aluminium Oxide - On July 8th, aluminium oxide rose 2.8% to 3110 yuan/ton. There was no short - to - medium - term shortage of bauxite, and operating capacity and inventory were gradually recovering. Market sentiment was volatile, with more spot inquiries but a strong wait - and - see atmosphere in transactions. Warehouse receipts decreased significantly, and there were concerns in the futures market. The long - term logic focused on bauxite prices. Short - term sentiment was volatile, so it was advisable to wait and see in the short term. If market sentiment faded in the medium - to - long term, one could cautiously short far - month contracts [21][23] 3.1.3 Daily Drop 3.1.3.1 Ethenylbenzene - On July 8th, ethenylbenzene fell 1.1% to 7276 yuan/ton. In a period without clear driving factors, it fluctuated in a narrow range. Affected by the easing of the Middle East situation, crude oil prices fell, and market bullish sentiment weakened. The spot supply - demand weakened, and port inventories increased, but the end - of - month short - squeeze sentiment was strong. Fundamentally, supply returned, demand weakened, and the market was moving towards inventory accumulation. The fundamentals of pure benzene improved marginally. Two points should be noted: the low inventory level of the ethenylbenzene industry chain and the better fundamentals of pure benzene from July to August [26][27][29] 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on the 7th local time that she expected to meet with Chinese officials in the coming weeks to promote consultations on trade and other issues between China and the U.S., and the two sides would discuss expanding cooperation [34] - Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will pay an official visit to China from July 12th to 18th at the invitation of Premier Li Qiang [34] 3.2.2 Industry News - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission announced measures to optimize and expand the Bond Connect, including expanding the scope of participating institutions in Southbound Trading Connect and optimizing the offshore RMB bond repo business [35] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has been cooperating with mainland regulatory authorities to promote the inclusion of RMB stock trading counters into the Hong Kong Stock Connect, and the trading scale of RMB - denominated Hong Kong stocks is expected to rise [35]