原油价格走强,短期成本端支撑稳固
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-09 05:17
- Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillatory [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillatory [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of fuel oil futures contracts rose, with the main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closing up 1.09% at 2,972 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closing up 1.69% at 3,663 yuan/ton. After the OPEC meeting announced a production increase of 550,000 barrels per day in August, the crude oil price first fell and then rose, showing strong support for the cost of fuel oil in the short term [1]. - The high-sulfur fuel oil market has a relatively abundant supply in the spot market, and the cracking spread may need further adjustment. After the adjustment, it will receive new support [1]. - The short-term supply pressure of low-sulfur fuel oil is limited, and the current market structure is relatively strong. However, in the medium term, the market share will be gradually replaced, and there is a lack of continuous upward momentum [2]. - The current market driver of low-sulfur fuel oil is slightly stronger than that of high-sulfur fuel oil, but the structural contradiction has not been completely reversed, and the high-low sulfur spread does not have the space for a significant increase for the time being [2]. 3. Strategy Summary High-sulfur Fuel Oil - Market trend: Oscillatory [3] Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - Market trend: Oscillatory [3] Cross-variety Strategy - Short the FU cracking spread (FU-Brent or FU-SC) on rallies [3] Cross-period Strategy - Short the FU2509 - FU2510 spread on rallies [3] Spot-futures Strategy - None [3] Options Strategy - None [3]