Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Investment rating for the pig industry: Neutral [3] - Investment rating for the egg industry: Cautiously bearish [6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The pig industry is in a low - volatility cycle, with stable sow inventories and difficult rapid decline in production capacity. Whether secondary fattening can drive up prices in Q3 this year needs continuous attention [2] - The egg industry is in a seasonal consumption off - season, with a loose supply pattern and weak demand. Egg prices are expected to be sluggish in the short term, and farmers' losses will continue [4][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live hog 2509 contract yesterday was 14,275 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (+0.21%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live hogs was 15.05 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 15.30 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 14.37 yuan/kg, unchanged [1] - Wholesale market: On July 8, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.51 yuan/kg, down 0.7% from the previous day [1] Market Analysis - Due to the decline in feed raw material prices and cost - reduction measures by group factories, self - breeding and self - raising still have profits. The sow inventory is stable, and the production capacity is unlikely to decline rapidly [2] - In Q3 of the past two years, there were price peaks. This year, group factories are reducing supply to control prices, but the impact of secondary fattening on price increases is uncertain due to relevant policies [2] Strategy - The strategy for the pig market is neutral [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2508 contract yesterday was 3445 yuan/500 kg, down 4 yuan (-0.12%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg price was 2.36 yuan/jin, down 0.06 yuan; in Shandong, it was 2.50 yuan/jin, down 0.10 yuan; in Hebei, it was 2.44 yuan/jin, unchanged [3] - Inventory: On July 8, the national production - link inventory was 1.27 days, unchanged, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.60 days, down 0.01 days [3] Market Analysis - Eggs are in the seasonal consumption off - season, and there is no obvious consumption boost before the Mid - Autumn Festival. Despite possible decline in laying rate due to high temperature, the supply will remain loose [4] - The plum - rain season increases the probability of egg mildew, and traders are cautious in purchasing, resulting in weak demand [5] Strategy - The strategy for the egg market is cautiously bearish [6]
南北出栏情况分化，猪价维持震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-09 05:14