现货价格承压，豆粕维持震荡

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [3][5] Group 2: Core Views - For soybean meal, in the short term, the supply of domestic soybeans remains abundant, and if the weather for new - season US soybeans remains favorable, a bumper harvest is expected [2] - For corn, the current supply is relatively low, and prices are constrained by wheat prices. New - season corn may face potential production cuts, and prices may enter a weak and volatile pattern during the listing period [4] Group 3: Market News and Key Data Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 2935 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.07%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2576 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (-0.12%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2850 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu and Guangdong, it was 2780 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2580 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - US soybean: As of July 6, the good - to - excellent rate was 66%, the emergence rate was 96%, the flowering rate was 32%, and the pod - setting rate was 8% [1] Corn and Corn Starch - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2321 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.21%); the corn starch 2509 contract was 2676 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.15%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2760 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [3] - US corn: As of July 6, the good - to - excellent rate was 74%, the silking rate was 18%. Brazil's daily average corn export volume in the first week of July was 3000 tons, an 80% decrease compared to the previous year [3] Group 4: Market Analysis Soybean Meal - In the near term, the arrival of soybeans at ports remains above 10 million tons, and the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in oil mills is increasing rapidly. The supply of domestic soybeans will remain abundant until the new - season US soybeans are on the market. The planting area of new - season US soybeans has decreased significantly, but the current and future weather is favorable, and a bumper harvest is expected [2] Corn - Currently, the supply of corn is relatively low, and prices are constrained by wheat prices, so they are expected to remain volatile. New - season corn may face production cuts, and during the listing period, prices may enter a weak and volatile pattern under the influence of selling pressure [4] Group 5: Strategy - The strategy for both soybean meal and corn sectors is to be cautiously bearish [3][5]