Report Industry Investment Rating - RU is rated neutral, and NR is rated neutral. BR is also rated neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - Driven by the warming macro - atmosphere, rubber prices rebounded slightly. Currently, the absolute price of rubber is at a low level. From the perspective of spreads and production profits, RU is in an undervalued range, and the valuation of NR is not significantly overvalued. However, the current driving force is still weak due to the peak rubber - tapping season at home and abroad, with production maintaining a recovery pattern. Affected by seasonal rainfall, it is not the peak period of raw material output. In China, due to the better profit of concentrated latex factories than that of whole - latex production, the phenomenon of factories competing for raw materials still exists, and domestic raw material prices remain firm. But overseas rainfall has eased, and it is expected that raw material prices will continue to weaken, reducing the cost - side support for rubber. This week, the maintenance of domestic semi - steel tire factories may gradually end, and the operating rate is expected to rebound month - on - month, but the terminal demand is weak. For BR, the news of the fault of the upstream atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit of butadiene and the warming macro - atmosphere drove a significant rebound in cis - butadiene rubber. However, the actual impact on the butadiene unit is limited. The supply is expected to change little this week. Although Shandong Yihua is under maintenance, some private units have plans to increase production. The production profit is still around the break - even point, limiting the supply increase. The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tire factories is expected to rebound month - on - month, but the terminal demand is weak, and the rebound amplitude is limited. The supply - demand contradiction of cis - butadiene rubber itself is not significant. The upstream butadiene raw material supply is abundant, and there is rigid procurement at low prices, so the price fluctuation is expected to be limited. Cis - butadiene rubber is expected to fluctuate within a range [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 13,985 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day. The closing price of the NR main contract was 12,070 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole - latex in the Shanghai market was 13,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 13,850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,720 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,660 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Market Information - Thailand: In 2025, Thailand's rubber production is expected to increase by 2% to 4.89 million tons, with different growth rates in different regions. - Vietnam: From January to May, Vietnam exported a total of 341,000 tons of mixed rubber, a year - on - year increase of 10%. - USA: In the first five months of 2025, the United States imported a total of 120.95 million tires, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. From January to May, the United States imported a total of 11.1 million tires from China, a year - on - year increase of 2.5% [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 8, 2025, the RU basis was - 35 yuan/ton (- 15), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 135 yuan/ton (+ 15), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 6,192 yuan/ton (- 37.10), the NR basis was 234.00 yuan/ton (+ 11.00). - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 65.20 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai glue was 54.50 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 47.50 Thai baht/kg (- 0.30), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 7.00 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.30). - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.53% (- 0.70%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 64.13% (- 6.27%). - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,293,590 tons (+ 7,445.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 632,377 tons (+ 287), the RU futures inventory was 188,850 tons (- 3,110), and the NR futures inventory was 29,736 tons (+ 2,118) [3] Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 8, 2025, the BR basis was - 155 yuan/ton (- 305), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 8,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 was 11,400 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of Zhejiang Chuanhua's BR9000 was 11,150 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of private cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,150 yuan/ton (+ 100), and the import profit of cis - butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,170 yuan/ton (+ 251). - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 66.98% (+ 0.19%). - Inventory: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 6,800 tons (+ 430), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,350 tons (- 1,300) [3]
丁二烯装置故障消息，顺丁橡胶跟涨
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-09 05:13