新能源及有色金属日报：盘面拉涨后回落，不锈钢成交低迷-20250709

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For the nickel market, with nickel ore prices slightly decreasing, intermediate product supply slightly increasing, recent resurgence of tariff issues, and general market demand, it is expected that nickel prices will be under pressure in the near - term, seeking support downward. The medium - to - long - term strategy remains to sell on rallies for hedging [3]. - For the stainless steel market, due to steel mill production cuts, nickel iron production cuts, a slight decline in nickel ore prices, and the market being in the off - season with general spot transactions, it is expected that stainless steel will oscillate weakly within a range in the near - term, and the medium - to - long - term strategy also remains to sell on rallies for hedging [5]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Nickel Market - Market Performance: On July 8, 2025, the main contract 2508 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,860 yuan/ton and closed at 120,370 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.67% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 88,116 lots, and the open interest was 67,223 lots. The main contract had a small gap - up opening at night, rebounded but was blocked, then oscillated and declined. During the day session, it continued to decline, found support, and then oscillated sideways, closing with a negative line. The trading volume and open interest decreased slightly compared to the previous trading day [1][2]. - Supply and Demand Factors: - Supply: In the Philippines, rainfall in the Surigao mining area and seasonal typhoons affected shipping efficiency. In Indonesia, the shortage of nickel ore supply was alleviated due to production cuts at local smelters. In June 2025, Indonesia's ferronickel metal production was 24,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.68% and a year - on - year decrease of 29.28%. The estimated production in July was 26,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.31%. In June, Indonesia's nickel hydrometallurgical intermediate product nickel metal production was 38,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.14% and a year - on - year increase of 42.98%. The estimated production in July was 40,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.98% and a year - on - year increase of 48.41% [2]. - Demand: In the spot market, Jinchuan nickel's morning quotation was about 900 yuan/ton lower than the previous trading day, and the prices of mainstream brands also decreased accordingly. With the decline in nickel prices on the disk, refined nickel was in sufficient supply, demand did not show significant growth, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased as needed. Spot transactions were average [2]. - Inventory: The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 20,833 (1.0) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 202,620 (150) tons [2]. - Strategy: - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range - bound operations. - Others: No suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options operations [3]. Stainless Steel Market - Market Performance: On July 8, 2025, the main contract 2508 of stainless steel opened at 12,660 yuan/ton and closed at 12,700 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 103,281 lots, and the open interest was 90,238 lots. The main contract had a small gap - up opening at night, rebounded but was blocked, then oscillated sideways. During the day session, it continued to decline, found support, and then rebounded slightly, but declined in the afternoon, closing with a hanging - man positive line. The trading volume increased slightly, and the open interest increased compared to the previous trading day [4]. - Supply and Demand Factors: - Supply: In the Philippines, rainfall in the Surigao mining area and seasonal typhoons affected shipping efficiency. In Indonesia, the shortage of nickel ore supply was alleviated due to production cuts at local smelters. Indonesian nickel iron production lines were converted to produce ferronickel, and some small smelters cut production. Some domestic smelters also stopped production. On the 8th, a major steel mill in South China inquired at a price of 900 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hold), and several thousand tons of nickel iron were traded. The overall negotiation range of nickel iron prices shifted downward [4]. - Demand: In the spot market, stainless steel prices on the disk first rose and then fell. Market inquiry activity was low, and it was difficult to make transactions even with price concessions. The price of stainless steel in Wuxi market was 12,725 yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was also 12,725 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 105 - 255 yuan/ton [4]. - Strategy: - Unilateral: Neutral. - Others: No suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options operations [5].