新能源及有色金属日报：氧化铝的仓单风险仍在继续-20250709

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Neutral [7] - Alumina: Cautiously Bearish [7] - Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [7] Core Viewpoints - The smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum has expanded to 4,000 yuan/ton during the off - season. In the long run, high industry profits are not a factor limiting the rise of aluminum prices under the restricted supply. In the short term, the further rise of aluminum prices requires the resonance of a good macro - environment and strong micro - consumption. Be vigilant against price drops due to inventory accumulation in the short term and price increases driven by stronger - than - expected consumption in the long term [3]. - For alumina, the supply pressure at home and abroad remains unchanged in the long run. The current warehouse receipt inventory is at a low level, and the delivery risk continues [5]. - Aluminum alloy is in the off - season. The futures price fluctuates with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap and raw aluminum is still tight, and the cost supports the price. Pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities for the 11 - contract [6]. Summary by Directory Aluminum - Spot Price: On July 8, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,600 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20,480 yuan/ton; the Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,580 yuan/ton [1]. - Futures Price: On July 8, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 20,460 yuan/ton, closed at 20,525 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton or 0.12% from the previous trading day [1]. - Inventory: As of July 7, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 478,000 tons. As of July 8, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 384,350 tons, up 13,200 tons from the previous trading day [1]. Alumina - Spot Price: On July 8, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,100 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,090 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,205 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 366 US dollars/ton [2]. - Futures Price: On July 8, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 3,039 yuan/ton, closed at 3,110 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan/ton or 2.78% from the previous trading day [2]. - Transaction and Inventory: The trading volume was 439,969 lots, an increase of 98,116 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 267,754 lots, an increase of 15,036 lots from the previous trading day. The alumina warehouse receipt was 18,000 tons, and the 07 - contract position was 27,000 tons [2][5]. Aluminum Alloy - Price: On July 8, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 15,200 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical raw aluminum was 15,300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 19,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 28,900 tons, a weekly increase of 2,900 tons; the in - factory inventory was 78,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 4,000 tons; the total inventory was 107,700 tons, a weekly decrease of 1,100 tons [2]. Strategies - Single - side Strategy: Aluminum: Neutral; Alumina: Cautiously Bearish; Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [7]. - Arbitrage Strategy: Long - short spread arbitrage for Shanghai aluminum, long AD11 and short AL11 [7].