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新能源及有色金属日报:特朗普顾问再次批评鲍威尔拒绝降息的行为-20250709
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-09 05:22

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core View - The "Big and Beautiful" bill has passed, the U.S. debt ceiling will still expand, Trump has repeatedly called for replacing the Fed Chairman, and a relatively loose monetary policy is needed to support it, so gold is expected to remain relatively strong [8][9] - The gold-silver ratio is at a high level, and some so-called safe-haven demand may flow to silver, but due to the relatively high volatility of silver itself, more attention should be paid to position control and stop-loss protection when operating, and the silver price is expected to maintain a volatile and strong pattern [9] Market News and Important Data - Trump's chief trade advisor Peter Navarro criticized Powell for refusing to cut interest rates, saying it could be his third major policy mistake in six years, and if he continues the tight monetary policy route at the July 29 Fed meeting, he will become the worst Fed Chairman in history [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On July 8, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 771.66 yuan/gram, closed at 776.22 yuan/gram, up 0.64% from the previous trading day's close, with a trading volume of 187,574 lots and an open interest of 179,131 lots. The night session opened at 774.98 yuan/gram and closed at 769.52 yuan/gram, down 0.65% from the afternoon close [2] - On July 8, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 8,856 yuan/kilogram, closed at 8,953 yuan/kilogram, down 1.31% from the previous trading day's close, with a trading volume of 418,168 lots and an open interest of 338,144 lots. The night session opened at 8,940 yuan/gram and closed at 8,908 yuan/gram, down 0.10% from the afternoon close [2] U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On July 8, 2025, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.40%, up 0.05% from the previous trading day, and the 10-year and 2-year spread was 0.52%, up 2 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Position and Trading Volume Changes of Precious Metals on the SHFE - On July 8, 2025, on the Au2502 contract, the long position changed by 79 lots compared with the previous day, and the short position changed by 46 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 245,162 lots, down 7.74% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2502 contract, the long position decreased by 231 lots, and the short position decreased by 170 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Silver contract on the previous trading day was 715,924 lots, down 5.78% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - On the previous trading day, the gold ETF position was 946.51 tons, down 1.15 tons from the previous trading day, and the silver ETF position was 14,935.15 tons, up 66.41 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On July 8, 2025, the domestic premium of gold was -0.23 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was -665.35 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 86.70, down 0.27% from the previous trading day, and the price ratio of gold and silver in the overseas market was 90.59, up 0.58% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On July 8, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 28,986 kilograms, up 3.63% from the previous trading day, and the trading volume of silver was 319,210 kilograms, down 41.92% from the previous trading day. The delivery volume of gold was 13,086 kilograms, and the delivery volume of silver was 21,270 kilograms [7]