新能源及有色金属日报：下游按需采购，电解铅市场成交逐步转强-20250709

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Cautiously bullish [3] - Option strategy: Sell put options [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic lead ore supply remains relatively tight, and smelters have low willingness to purchase high-silver ores. It is currently the transition period between the off-season and peak season. The energy storage battery sector performs outstandingly, with the operating rates of relevant enterprises generally reaching 80 - 100%. The industry is optimistic about the second half of the year, and the operating rates of other battery sectors are also gradually recovering. The electrolytic lead market transactions have slightly improved [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market News and Important Data - Spot: On July 8, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$25.31/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,900 yuan/ton. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -40 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,950 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,900 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,975 yuan/ton. The lead refined-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,300 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,175 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,525 yuan/ton [1] - Futures: On July 8, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,180 yuan/ton, closed at 17,160 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 35,649 lots, an increase of 6,243 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest was 51,617 lots, an increase of 572 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest reaching 17,185 yuan/ton and the lowest reaching 17,065 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,375 yuan/ton and closed at 17,365 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from the afternoon close [1] Supply and Demand - The lead price fluctuated weakly. Sellers adjusted prices according to the market, some smelters tried to maintain prices, and downstream enterprises made purchases on a need-to basis at low prices. The electrolytic lead market transactions slightly improved [2] - In Henan, smelters' quotes were at a premium of 0 - 20 yuan/ton over SMM 1 lead for ex-factory, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 180 - 160 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2508 contract for ex-factory, with some large-discount supplies being traded. In Hunan, smelters' quotes were at a discount of 30 - 20 yuan/ton to SMM 1 lead for ex-factory, and traders' quotes at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2508 contract had difficulty in making transactions. In Yunnan, holders' quotes were at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to SMM 1 lead for ex-factory [2] Inventory - On July 8, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 58,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the same period last week. As of July 8, the LME lead inventory was 258,075 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons from the previous trading day [2]