新能源及有色金属日报：特朗普声称将会对铜加征50%关税-20250709

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [6] 2. Core Viewpoints - Currently, the TC price remains extremely low, and the demand outlook is not very optimistic. However, based on the published data, the terminal performance is acceptable. With the continuous flow of inventories from Shanghai and London to the New York market, the low inventory makes the near - month contracts vulnerable to squeeze risks. Therefore, it is expected that the price will be more likely to rise than fall in the future, and the operation should mainly focus on buying hedges on dips [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures Quotes: On July 8, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 79,370 yuan/ton and closed at 79,620 yuan/ton, a 0.44% increase from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at 79,590 yuan/ton and closed at 80,300 yuan/ton, a 0.69% increase from the afternoon close [1]. - Spot Situation: The spot market of electrolytic copper continued to operate weakly. The SMM1 electrolytic copper was quoted at 79,660 - 79,930 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 85 yuan/ton, narrowing by 10 yuan from the previous day. As the delivery date approaches, the spot premium may be further pressured [2]. Important Information Summary - Macro and Geopolitical: Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper starting August 1, and the US Commerce Secretary expected to issue 15 - 20 tariff letters in the next two days, with copper tariffs to be implemented in late July or on August 1 [3]. - Domestic Policy: The Chinese President pointed out during an inspection in Shanxi that China should build an important energy and raw material base and develop a new energy system [3]. - Mine End: In 2024, Chinese overseas mining investment was very active, with 10 transactions exceeding $100 million. In 2025, the strong momentum continued, such as Zijin Mining's acquisition of a gold mine in Kazakhstan and Baiyin Non - ferrous Group's acquisition of a copper - gold mine in Brazil [4]. - Smelting and Import: The new LME warehouse in Hong Kong attracted 100 tons of copper in "non - warrant" form before its official opening in mid - July. A large - scale copper smelting plant in Tongling achieved carbon neutrality [4]. - Consumption: In June 2025, the actual output of domestic recycled copper rods was 251,200 tons, a 7.11% month - on - month increase and a 0.06% year - on - year decrease. The planned output in July is 240,200 tons, a 4.41% month - on - month decrease and a 1.11% year - on - year increase [5]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts increased by 2,125 tons to 102,500 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,573 tons to 19,109 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 142,900 tons, an increase of 11,100 tons from the previous week [5]. Strategy - Copper: Adopt a cautious and bullish strategy, mainly buying hedges on dips [6]. - Arbitrage: Put on hold [6]. - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [6]