光大期货能化商品日报-20250709

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the products in the report, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "Oscillating" [1][2][4][5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall oil price continues to price in geopolitical risks and uncertainties in demand due to tariff policies, maintaining an oscillating rhythm. The short - term unilateral drivers of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, and polyester markets are not obvious, and they generally follow the cost - end crude oil to oscillate within a range. The rubber market has weak fundamental contradictions and is expected to oscillate weakly. The methanol market has eased the near - month supply shortage, and prices have returned to an oscillating trend. The polyolefin market has no significant improvement in fundamentals, and prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly. The PVC market has no deterioration in fundamentals, and short - term short - selling is not recommended [1][2][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: On Tuesday, the oil price center continued to move up slightly. Geopolitical factors such as the US considering sanctions on Russia, Houthi attacks on Israeli - related ships, and the upcoming Iran - US nuclear negotiations have an impact on the oil price. The overall oil price continues to oscillate due to geopolitical risks and demand uncertainties [1] - Fuel Oil: The main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rose on Tuesday. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is expected to be tight, while the supply pressure of high - sulfur fuel oil will continue to suppress the Asian market. The short - term unilateral drivers are not obvious, and it follows the cost - end crude oil to oscillate [2] - Asphalt: The main asphalt contract rose on Tuesday. The impact of the adjustment of fuel oil and diluted asphalt consumption tax deduction policies has not yet appeared, with stable - to - increasing supply in July. The demand in the north is affected by rainfall, and the short - term market follows the cost - end crude oil to oscillate [2] - Polyester: The prices of polyester products showed different trends on Tuesday. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak, and some polyester and ethylene glycol devices have maintenance or production - related situations. TA inventory may gradually accumulate, and ethylene glycol has a strong inventory accumulation expectation in the third quarter, with prices under pressure [2][4] - Rubber: Rubber prices rose on Tuesday. The US tire imports increased in the first five months of 2025. The rubber - producing areas have fully entered the tapping season, raw material prices are loose, and downstream tire start - up loads have declined. The rubber inventory has slightly increased, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [4] - Methanol: The methanol price situation on Tuesday shows that the Iranian device production is gradually recovering, the near - month supply shortage has eased, the basis has declined, and the price has returned to an oscillating trend [5] - Polyolefins: The polyolefin market prices on Tuesday show that the upstream is still in the maintenance season, the overall supply change is small, the downstream start - up has declined with the arrival of the off - season, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [5] - Polyvinyl Chloride: The PVC market prices in East, North, and South China on Tuesday were stable or mainly in consolidation. The chlor - alkali profit has declined, and enterprise start - up has decreased. The fundamentals have not deteriorated, and short - term short - selling is not recommended [5][6] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on July 9, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the percentile of the latest basis rate in historical data [7] 3.3 Market News - The US will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imported products from 14 countries such as Japan and South Korea starting from August 1. The US President has approved the shipment of more defensive weapons to Ukraine and is considering further sanctions on Russia [9] 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of multiple energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, rubber, synthetic rubber, European - line container shipping, and p - xylene [11][13][15][17][19][20][21] 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [24][26][30][32][35][36] 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of multiple energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European - line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [38][40][43][46][49][50][53] 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - The report presents the spread and ratio charts of inter - variety of various energy - chemical products, including crude oil internal - external market spread, crude oil B - W spread, fuel oil high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber spread [55][59][60][62] 3.4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the production profit charts of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [64][66] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Guangda Futures energy - chemical research team, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [69][70][71][72]