光大期货软商品日报（2025年7月9日）-20250709

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided for the industry in the report Group 2: Core Views - Cotton is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. International market has limited overall drivers, with the US cotton sown area exceeding expectations and good growth conditions. In the domestic market, low imports, low inventory, and weather disturbances support cotton prices, while new - cotton harvest expectations and weak demand in the off - season limit upward movement [2]. - Sugar is expected to show a weak - oscillating trend. Brazilian sugar exports in the first week of July decreased by 34.63% year - on - year. The international raw sugar market lacks new drivers, and the domestic market is about to enter the imported - sugar - dominated stage with ample supply and weak price rebounds, but short - term basis support remains [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Cotton: On Tuesday, ICE US cotton fell 0.84% to 67.32 cents/pound, CF509 decreased 0.07% to 13785 yuan/ton, and the main - contract positions decreased by 617 to 543,200 hands. The Xinjiang cotton arrival price was 15175 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton, and the China Cotton Price Index 3128B was 15193 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton [2]. - Sugar: Brazil exported 677,300 tons of sugar and molasses in the first week of July, a 34.63% decrease year - on - year. The daily export volume was 169,300 tons. Domestic sugar - making groups and processing plants lowered their quotes. The international raw sugar market awaits macro guidance and northern - hemisphere yield estimates, and the domestic market is about to enter the imported - sugar - dominated stage [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 9 - 1 contract spread was 25 (unchanged), the main - contract basis was 1408 (down 33), the Xinjiang spot price was 15175 yuan/ton (down 1), and the national spot price was 15193 yuan/ton (down 8) [3]. - Sugar: The 9 - 1 contract spread was 155 (down 5), the main - contract basis was 333 (down 3), the Nanning spot price was 6020 yuan/ton (down 20), and the Liuzhou spot price was 6080 yuan/ton (down 10) [3]. 3. Market Information - Cotton: On July 8, the cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 68 to 9971, with 282 valid forecasts. The yarn comprehensive load decreased by 0.1 to 51.3, and the inventory increased by 0.1 to 29.7. The short - fiber cloth comprehensive load decreased by 0.1 to 48.7, and the inventory increased by 0.1 to 33.5 [4]. - Sugar: On July 8, the Nanning sugar spot price was 6020 yuan/ton (down 20), the Liuzhou price was 6080 yuan/ton (down 10), the sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 312 to 23092, and there were 106 valid forecasts [4][5]. 4. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts for cotton and sugar are presented, including closing prices, basis, contract spreads, warehouse receipts, and price indices over different time periods, with data from Wind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [7][13][15][17]