欧盟碳市场行情简报（2025年第117期）-20250709

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1][2][3] 2. Core View - The short - term outlook for EUA is bullish, while the medium - term is expected to be volatile, with a price range of €63 - 76 [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - EUA auction price is 70.34 euros/ton, down 0.72%, and the bid - cover ratio is 1.46; EUA futures settlement price is 71.2 euros/ton, down 0.66%, with 1.76 ten - thousand lots traded, up 0.47 [2] - On July 7, 2025, EUA auction volume was 22,829 tons, auction price was 70.34 euros/ton, auction revenue was 324.55 million euros, and CBAM certificate price was 71.25 euros/ton [3] - From July 4 to July 7, 2025, EUA futures settlement price decreased from 71.67 to 71.20 euros/ton, down 0.66%; futures trading volume increased from 1.29 to 1.76 ten - thousand lots, up 0.47; futures open interest remained unchanged [4] - From July 4 to July 7, 2025, EUA spot settlement price decreased from 70.89 to 70.44 euros/ton, down 0.63%; spot trading volume increased from 2283 to 3352 lots; container shipping carbon cost increased from 11.97 to 12.04 dollars/TEU, and the proportion of freight increased from 0.57% to 0.57% [4] Strategy - The short - term strategy for EUA is bullish, and the medium - term is volatile, with a price range of €63 - 76 [2] Core Logic - Bullish factor: Trump signed an executive order to extend the suspension period of the "reciprocal tariff" from July 9 to August 1 [2] - Bearish factors: At the beginning of the week, the temperature in Central and Western Europe turned cooler, and the supply of wind and solar energy was sufficient, reducing the residual load; Sino - European trade frictions intensified [2]