碳酸锂日报（2025年7月9日）-20250709

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On July 8, 2025, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 0.69% to 63,880 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 350 yuan/ton to 62,900 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 350 yuan/ton to 61,300 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 57,470 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 2,900 tons to 12,655 tons [3]. - In July, the production is expected to increase by 3.9% month - on - month to 81,150 tons. However, due to the maintenance and technological transformation of some upstream enterprises, the weekly production has slowed down, and the expected production may be adjusted downward. In terms of imports, the exports of lithium salts from Chile were basically flat from May to June, and the overall import of lithium carbonate in July is expected to change little month - on - month. In the demand side, the production schedule in July increased slightly month - on - month, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased by 3% month - on - month to about 80,800 tons. In the inventory side, the weekly inventory continued to accumulate, and the current inventory of lithium salts + lithium ore is high, about 380,000 tons of LCE according to Steel Union data [3]. - Currently, the overall market sentiment has warmed up, the warehouse receipts are at a low level, the transaction price of lithium ore has increased, lithium salt plants have announced production suspension for maintenance and technological transformation, and there are many disturbances in the market news. In the short term, the market may still run strongly. However, in the future, hedging pressure will also follow. As of now, there are no signs of production suspension or reduction at the mine end, and the social inventory of lithium ore and lithium salts is high. Opportunities for short - selling after the sentiment turns can still be observed. If the warehouse receipt inventory remains at a low level, it may hinder the smooth price correction, and the price may show a wide - range shock pattern [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - The prices of some lithium ores increased. For example, the price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased by 4 dollars/ton to 658 dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) increased by 25 yuan/ton to 800 yuan/ton [5]. - Among lithium salts, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 350 yuan/ton, while the prices of various types of lithium hydroxide mostly decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged [5]. - In terms of price differences, the price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 1,600 yuan/ton, while the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 400 yuan/ton to - 5,430 yuan/ton [5]. - The prices of some cathode materials and precursors changed slightly. For example, the prices of some ternary precursors remained unchanged, while the prices of some ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased slightly, and the price of cobalt acid lithium remained unchanged [5]. - The prices of lithium batteries remained stable, with no change in the prices of various types of lithium battery cells and batteries [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Ore Prices - The report presents charts of the prices of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica with different Li2O contents over time from 2024 to 2025 [6][7][8] 3.2.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts show the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [12][13][14] 3.2.3 Price Differences - Charts display the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other relevant price differences from 2024 to 2025, as well as the basis [19][20][21] 3.2.4 Precursors and Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors and ternary materials from 2024 to 2025, as well as the prices of lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium [23][24][26] 3.2.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts present the price trends of 523 square ternary battery cells, square lithium iron phosphate battery cells, cobalt acid lithium battery cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [31][32][33] 3.2.6 Inventory - Charts show the weekly inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from November 2024 to July 2025 [36][37][38] 3.2.7 Production Costs - The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as purchased ternary pole piece black powder, lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, lithium mica concentrate, and lithium spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [40][41] 3.3 Research Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in non - ferrous and new energy research, and have obtained relevant professional qualifications and honors [44][45][46]