策略定期观点：胜率与赔率，胆量与耐心-20250709

Group 1 - The market experienced a volatile first half of 2025, with two major upward trends leading to a positive close. The market saw a rapid decline in early January, followed by a recovery supported by government interventions and liquidity measures [6][10]. - The A-share market demonstrated a preference for smaller stocks, with micro-cap stocks outperforming small and mid-cap stocks. As of June 30, 2025, the indices for large, mid, small, and micro-cap stocks increased by 0.36%, 1.66%, 6.81%, and 36.41% respectively [10][18]. - The valuation structure improved significantly, with the proportion of stocks at extremely low valuations (bottom 5%) decreasing from approximately 10% in early April to less than 3% by the end of June [18][28]. Group 2 - The banking sector saw a cumulative increase of over 11% since May 2025, driven by positive policy signals and expectations of liquidity improvements. Banks are becoming a core allocation for long-term funds due to their high dividends and low valuations [28][80]. - The new consumption sector is showing signs of recovery, with specific stocks experiencing volatility due to growth concerns. The performance of innovative drugs and new consumption stocks has been influenced by market sentiment and valuation adjustments [28][31]. - The technology sector, particularly in AI computing and semiconductors, is expected to see a rebound after a period of adjustment, with specific opportunities in light modules and PCBs [28][31]. Group 3 - The global stock market ranking for the second half of 2025 is Japan > USA > India > Vietnam > UK > Germany > France, with Japan leading due to macroeconomic improvements and foreign capital inflows [49][50]. - The report highlights that the US dollar is facing a dual dilemma, with its status as a reserve currency being questioned during economic downturns and policy constraints during strong economic periods, leading to a "Dollar Frown" scenario [39][40]. - The outlook for gold remains bullish in the long term, driven by potential factors such as Federal Reserve rate cuts, ongoing trade uncertainties, and supply constraints, while geopolitical tensions and high interest rates pose risks [54][51].