Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-09 08:39Group 1: Overall Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Internationally, the arrival of the monsoon season has led to a favorable supply outlook in major Asian sugar - producing countries. Coupled with the year - on - year increase in Brazil's exports, the expectation of loose supply has suppressed the raw sugar price. Brazil's sugar exports in June were 3.359 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.24%, but the cumulative sugar exports from the 2025/26 crushing season to June were 7.1682 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.09%. Domestically, the price trends at home and abroad are diverging, the profit window for out - of - quota imports is open, and import pressure will be released, suppressing sugar prices. On the demand side, during the summer consumption peak season, the food and beverage industry has inventory needs, and the seasonal consumption of cold drinks has recovered, providing some support for prices. In general, recent raw sugar fluctuations indirectly affect the domestic white sugar trend, but domestic demand has rebounded, performing stronger than the overseas market. In the later stage, both supply and demand will be strong, and price fluctuations will intensify. Attention should be paid to the arrival of imported sugar and summer consumption [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar was 5,779 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 287,247 lots, down 7,728 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 22,987, down 105; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 34,710 lots, up 4,107 lots; the total effective warehouse receipt forecast was 106, unchanged [2]. 2. Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,457 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 4,498 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,662 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar was 5,715 yuan/ton. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming was 6,365 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; in Nanning, it was 6,040 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Liuzhou, it was 6,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area was 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sugar - cane planting area in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. 4. Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, up 5.49 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 8.1138 million tons, up 869,200 tons; the national industrial sugar inventory was 3.0483 million tons, down 814,300 tons; the national sugar sales rate was 72.69%, up 7.47 percentage points; the monthly sugar import volume was 350,000 tons, up 220,000 tons; Brazil's monthly sugar export volume was 3.359 million tons, up 1.1024 million tons [2]. 5. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production was 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production was 3%, down 0.9 percentage points [2]. 6. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 8.24%, down 0.05 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options was 8.31%, up 0.01 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility was 7.31%, down 0.07 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 7.79%, down 0.03 percentage points [2]. 7. Industry News - An S&P Global survey showed that sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of June was expected to decrease by 9.8% to 2.95 million tons. Internationally, with the arrival of the monsoon season, the supply outlook of major Asian sugar - producing countries was good, and Brazil's export volume increased year - on - year, leading to an expectation of loose supply that suppressed raw sugar prices [2].