Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the digestion of old - crop corn and tightened grain imports, the corn supply will be tight in the third quarter. However, wheat prices will cap the upside of corn prices, and potential policy - grain auctions are a negative factor. After the production situation becomes clear in September and new - crop corn is listed in October, the far - month contracts C2511 and C2601 may have a slight downward trend, but it's hard to see a trending market like last year [2][136]. - The third - quarter corn futures contracts will maintain a wide - range oscillation, and the fourth - quarter contracts may decline slightly [2][136][137]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - CBOT Corn Contracts: In 2025, from January to February, affected by Brazil's heavy rainfall, Argentina's drought, and strong US corn exports, the CBOT corn futures price rose from 451 cents/bushel on January 3rd to 504.75 cents/bushel on February 21st. Due to tariff policy uncertainties, expected supply increases, and slower export sales, the price dropped to 452.25 cents/bushel at the end of February and early March and then oscillated between 450 - 470 cents/bushel. In April, with the adjustment of the US corn supply - demand balance, the price shifted to the 460 - 490 cents/bushel range. Since May, the price has been on a weakening trend, closing at 411.25 cents/bushel on June 27th. The net long positions of managed funds decreased from 337,454 hands on February 25th to - 164,020 hands on June 10th [8][10]. - Domestic Corn Futures Market: From December 2024 to April 2025, supported by the suspension of imported corn auctions and CGSGB purchases, the market was in a state of "strong expectation, weak reality". After April, with the end of grassroots grain sales and low imports, the supply pressure eased, and the market shifted to "consistent reality and expectation". The term structure changed from "near - weak, mid - strong, far - weak" to "near - strong, far - weak". The C2509 - C2511 contract spread oscillated within 50 - 90 yuan/ton. Corn spot prices rose steadily, with the national average price increasing by 15.1% to 2432.35 yuan/ton as of June 30th [11][12][14]. 2. Supply - Import of Corn and Substitute Grains: Since the second half of last year, China's corn imports have significantly decreased. In May 2025, corn imports were 190,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 81.9%. The import of substitute grains also decreased, with a 57.3% year - on - year decrease in May 2025. Due to the Sino - US trade conflict, US corn imports are difficult to recover in the short term [38][39]. - Wheat Impact: The 2025 wheat harvest was completed in mid - June. With the launch of the minimum purchase price policy in Henan, Anhui, and Hebei, wheat prices were supported. Currently, the wheat - corn price difference is low, and the proportion and scope of wheat feed substitution are expanding, with an annual feed consumption of about 33 - 35 million tons [43][44][45]. - Imported Corn Auction: On July 1, 2025, CGSGB launched its first imported corn directional invitation auction, with a scale of 189,000 tons. The auction was well - received, with a transaction volume of 183,000 tons and an average premium of 103 yuan/ton. A subsequent auction on July 4th with a larger scale may have a certain impact on market sentiment [52][53]. 3. Demand - Feed Sales: In May 2025, the national industrial feed output was 27.7 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.6% and a year - on - year increase of 6.9%. The proportion of corn in compound feed increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month due to the narrowing wheat - corn price difference. From January to May, the monthly sales of pig feed increased year - on - year, and the growth is expected to continue [54][55]. - Corn Deep - processing Enterprises: In the first half of 2025, affected by losses, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises was low, and the corn consumption from January to June was 30.5783 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.84% [69]. - CGSGB Corn Transactions: Since late March, CGSGB's corn purchases have basically stagnated, and it has maintained a net rotation - out state. From September last year to now, the net purchase volume is 1.91 million tons [71]. 4. Inventory - Port Inventory: Since April 2025, port corn inventories have been decreasing and are now in the normal range. As of June 27th, the inventory in the four northern ports was 2.724 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.73% [76]. - Feed Enterprise Inventory: Due to the increasing cost - effectiveness of wheat, the corn inventory of feed enterprises has started to decline. As of June 27th, the available days of corn inventory were 32.59 days, a month - on - month decrease of 10.81% [79]. - Deep - processing Enterprise Inventory: The corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises has remained stable. As of June 27th, the inventory was 4.567 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.88% [81]. 5. Corn Starch - Price Trend: In the first half of 2025, the price of the Dalian corn starch futures main contract oscillated strongly, with a 11.69% increase as of June 30th. The basis oscillated between 0 - 220 yuan/ton. The corn starch - corn futures 09 - contract spread and the spot spread both decreased [86]. - Supply and Demand: The losses of corn starch enterprises have narrowed, production has stabilized, demand has remained stable but decreased year - on - year, and inventory has started to decline since June. It is expected that the price of corn starch will continue to follow the trend of corn in the second half of 2025 [87].
2025年半年度策略报告：宽幅震荡，上下两难-20250709
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-07-09 08:28