通胀数据点评：6月通胀：三大分化

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In June, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of -0.1% and an expectation of 0%[8] - The PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, down from a previous value of -3.3% and below the expected -3.2%[8] - Month-on-month, the CPI fell by 0.1%, while the PPI decreased by 0.4%[8] Group 2: Price Divergence Analysis - Commodity prices for upstream coal and steel fell, negatively impacting the PPI, while food and platinum prices rose, supporting the CPI[2] - The core PPI remains at historical lows, reflecting tariff impacts and low capacity utilization in downstream industries, with a core PPI of -1%[21] - Core CPI rose by 0.3 percentage points to 0.6%, driven by consumer stimulus policies and increased domestic demand[3] Group 3: Service Sector Insights - The service CPI remained stable at 0.5% year-on-year, with core service CPI unchanged at 0.8%[50] - Rent CPI showed weakness, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.1%, below the historical average of 0.2%[25] Group 4: Future Outlook - Policy measures and recovery in domestic demand are expected to alleviate inflationary pressures, but commodity prices may face downward pressure in the second half of the year[27] - The PPI is anticipated to underperform compared to the CPI due to ongoing low capacity utilization and external factors such as tariffs and global oil supply constraints[27]