Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-09 08:40Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The cotton market shows an overall trend of slightly stronger fluctuations in a range. In the international market, the favorable weather has increased the good - quality rate of U.S. cotton, and factors such as a stronger dollar and a weaker grain market have pushed down U.S. cotton prices. Macroeconomic factors like U.S. tariff policies pose risks. In the domestic market, it's the off - season for textile consumption, with poor new orders and a slow decline in the overall operating rate. Enterprises are cautious in purchasing raw materials. Cotton is in a de - stocking state, and high - temperature risks in some Xinjiang areas support price increases, but the slow de - stocking process drags down the price rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengmian main contract closing price: 13,830 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price: 19,985 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan - Cotton futures top 20 net positions: - 20,573 lots, up 3,092 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions: - 14 lots, up 58 lots - Cotton main contract positions: 546,763 lots, up 3,515 lots; cotton yarn main contract positions: 22,435 lots, down 557 lots - Cotton warehouse receipts: 9,932 sheets, down 39 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts: 51 sheets, up 49 sheets - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B): 15,184 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32S): 20,420 yuan/ton, unchanged - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff): 13,632 yuan/ton; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - duty tariff): 14,377 yuan/ton; Imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32S) arrival price: 22,044 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; Imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32S) arrival price: 23,837 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Not mentioned separately other than data in the futures section 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output: 6.16 million tons, up 540,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,236 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; industrial inventory of cotton nationwide: 850,000 tons, up 24,000 tons - Cotton import volume (monthly): 40,000 tons, down 20,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume (monthly): 100,000 tons, down 20,000 tons - Imported cotton profit: 816 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan; commercial inventory of cotton nationwide: 3.4587 million tons, down 693,900 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 23.86 days, up 1.52 days; grey fabric inventory days: 35.46 days, up 2.57 days - Monthly cloth production: 2.67 billion meters, down 50 million meters; monthly yarn production: 1.951 million tons, down 36,000 tons - Monthly clothing and clothing accessories export value: 1.3577737 billion US dollars, up 197.1179 million US dollars; monthly textile yarn, fabric and product export value: 1.2631773 billion US dollars, up 5.2109 million US dollars - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility: 10.06%, up 1%; cotton at - the - money put option implied volatility: 10.06%, up 1%; cotton 20 - day historical volatility: 5.11%, unchanged; cotton 60 - day historical volatility: 9.22%, down 0.86% [2] 3.6 Industry News - Nationwide commercial cotton inventory is decreasing. As of July 4, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.7476 million tons, down 132,300 tons (a decrease of 4.59%) from the previous week. In Xinjiang, the commercial cotton inventory was 1.9128 million tons, down 117,100 tons (a decrease of 5.77%); in inland areas, it was 435,500 tons, down 2,500 tons (a decrease of 0.57%) - According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) weekly crop growth report, as of the week ending July 6, 2025, the boll - setting rate of U.S. cotton was 14% (9% the previous week, 18% the same period last year, and a five - year average of 15%); the budding rate was 48% (40% the previous week, 51% the same period last year, and a five - year average of 49%); the good - quality rate was 52% (51% the previous week, 45% the same period last year). Favorable weather has increased the good - quality rate, while a stronger dollar and a weaker grain market have pushed down U.S. cotton prices [2] 3.7 Suggestions - Pay attention to weather and macro - economic factors as the cotton market shows an overall trend of slightly stronger fluctuations in a range, with the de - stocking process being slow and the textile industry in a consumption off - season [2]