Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-09 08:52Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PNBP policy implemented by the Indonesian government has increased the cost of nickel resource supply. However, the nickel - iron production capacity in Indonesia is being released rapidly, the output has rebounded significantly, and the nickel - iron price has dropped recently, weakening the support of raw material costs [2]. - Steel mills are facing increasing cost - price inversion pressure and are in a loss state across the board. They are forced to increase production cuts. Additionally, domestic anti - involution measures may accelerate the alleviation of the oversupply situation, and stainless steel production is expected to decline further [2]. - Entering the traditional consumption off - season, with increased macro - market uncertainties and export demand pressure remaining, downstream players are adopting a wait - and - see, cautious and pessimistic attitude. The inventory reduction in the domestic market is not satisfactory, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction effect brought about by subsequent production cuts [2]. - Technically, the position is decreasing. It is expected to have a short - term strong adjustment. It is recommended to wait and see or go long with a light position [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,770 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 70 yuan/ton; the price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts is 95 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 30 yuan/ton [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 9,656 lots, a daily decrease of 2,214 lots; the position of the main contract is 87,766 lots, a daily decrease of 2,472 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 111,290 tons, a daily decrease of 120 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled stainless steel (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,300 yuan/ton, with no change; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,200 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - The basis of the SS main contract is 100 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 95 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 23,900 metal tons, an increase of 2,200 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, a decrease of 1,058.97 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 848,200 tons, an increase of 31,300 tons [2]. - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 120,150 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 950 yuan/ton; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 905 yuan/nickel point, a daily decrease of 5 yuan/nickel point [2]. - The monthly chromium - iron output in China is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7847 million tons, a decrease of 39,600 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 605,900 tons, a decrease of 13,500 tons [2]. - The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, an increase of 53.4777 million square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 25,800 units, a decrease of 200 units [2]. - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 24,600 units, a decrease of 10,400 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 11,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - Trump postponed the reciprocal tariff suspension period to August 1st, and mentioned potential tariffs on the EU and India, as well as high - tariff threats on pharmaceuticals and unspecified semiconductor tariffs [2]. - The US one - year inflation expectation in June dropped to a five - month low, and concerns about layoffs eased; China's June passenger car retail sales reached a new high for the month, with new - energy vehicle retail sales increasing by 29.7% year - on - year [2].