Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term oil price is expected to remain firm and maintain a volatile pattern, but it is bearish in the medium term. The asphalt price may remain relatively low, the liquefied gas price is expected to be weak, the natural gas price in the US is expected to rise while that in Europe is under pressure. For various chemical products, most are expected to show a pattern of shock, with some being bearish or bullish in the short - term [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. - For forest products and paper products, the market is generally in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices showing different trends of stability, decline or shock [38][39][40][41][42]. - For rubber products, the market is affected by multiple factors, and different types of rubber have different investment suggestions, mainly focusing on waiting and seeing [44][45][46][47][48]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: WTI2508 contract settled at $68.33, up $0.40/barrel, a 0.59% increase; Brent2509 contract settled at $70.15, up $0.57/barrel, an 0.82% increase. SC2508 contract rose 8.6 to 509.9 yuan/barrel, and 6.4 to 516.3 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - Related News: Trump expanded the global trade war, announcing a 50% tariff on imported copper and threatening semiconductor and pharmaceutical tariffs. Japan and South Korea will negotiate with the US to ease the impact of tariff hikes. EIA raised the global oil production growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 [1][2]. - Logic Analysis: The near - term spread of crude oil is strong, Saudi Arabia raised the official price, and the refining profit has recovered. The oil price is expected to be volatile in the short - term and bearish in the medium - term [2]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term range - bound thinking, medium - term bearish; gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are stable; wait and see for options [2]. Asphalt - Market Review: BU2509 closed at 3629 points (+1.11%) at night, BU2512 closed at 3439 points (+1.48%) at night. The spot price in Shandong was 3580 - 4070 yuan/ton, 3670 - 3850 yuan/ton in East China, and 3610 - 3730 yuan/ton in South China [3]. - Related News: The mainstream transaction price in Shandong, East China, and South China remained stable. Rainy season affected demand, and the supply was sufficient [3][4]. - Logic Analysis: The cost side is volatile. The supply - demand is weak in the near - term, and the inventory is low year - on - year. The supply elasticity of asphalt from local refineries has increased. The asphalt price is expected to be in a narrow - range shock, and the cracking spread is expected to remain high [4]. - Trading Strategy: High - level shock; the asphalt - crude oil spread is stable; wait and see for options [5]. Liquefied Gas - Market Review: PG2508 closed at 4170 (-0.33%) at night, PG2509 closed at 4073 (-0.12%) at night. The spot price in South China, East China, and Shandong showed different trends [5]. - Related News: The price in South China declined, that in Shandong was stable with partial small drops, and that in East China generally declined [5][6]. - Logic Analysis: The supply decreased, the demand was weak in both the combustion and chemical fields, and the inventory decreased. The fundamentals of liquefied gas are loose, and the price is expected to be weak [6][7]. - Trading Strategy: Weak operation [7]. Natural Gas - Logic Analysis: US natural gas production decreased, demand was strong, and LNG exports increased, so the price is expected to rise. European natural gas prices fell due to supply - demand and geopolitical factors [7]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on HH on dips; shock for TTF [8]. Fuel Oil - Market Review: FU09 closed at 2992 (+0.84%) at night, LU09 closed at 3709 (+1.28%) at night. The Singapore paper - cargo market showed different spreads [8]. - Related News: India HPCL offered HSFO, there were attacks in the Red Sea, a US refinery had problems, and there were transactions in the Singapore spot window [9]. - Logic Analysis: High - sulfur spot discounts fell, supply may increase but is affected by geopolitical factors, and demand has seasonal support. Low - sulfur supply increased and demand had no specific driver [9][10]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see; pay attention to the digestion rhythm of high - sulfur spot in the near - term and consider going long on FU91 positive spreads on dips [10]. PX - Market Review: PX2509 closed at 6696 (+0.18%) during the day and 6718 (+0.33%) at night. The spot price rose, and PXN decreased [11]. - Related News: A refinery's crude distillation unit caught fire, and the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [11]. - Logic Analysis: The social inventory of PX is low, supply is tight, and Asian PX operating rates declined. Downstream demand will increase, and PX is expected to follow the cost side in the short - term [11]. - Trading Strategy: Shock consolidation; wait and see for arbitrage and options [11]. PTA - Market Review: TA509 closed at 4710 (0%) during the day and 4720 (+0.21%) at night. The spot price and basis were reported [11][12]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, and a PTA device in South China returned to normal operation [12]. - Logic Analysis: The basis of PTA declined, some devices were under maintenance or had load changes, downstream demand was weak, and inventory accumulation was expected [13]. - Trading Strategy: Shock consolidation; wait and see for arbitrage and options [13]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: EG2509 closed at 4267 (-0.28%) during the day and 4270 (+0.07%) at night. The spot price and basis were reported [13]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, and some ethylene glycol devices restarted [14]. - Logic Analysis: The supply of some domestic and foreign devices increased, inventory accumulation is expected in August - September, downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term [15]. - Trading Strategy: Weak shock; wait and see for arbitrage and options [15]. Short - Fiber - Market Review: PF2508 closed at 6518 (0%) during the day and 6528 (+0.15%) at night. The spot price in different regions was stable [15][16]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [16]. - Logic Analysis: Some short - fiber devices reduced production or were under maintenance, the processing margin expanded, and the processing fee is expected to be strongly supported [16][17]. - Trading Strategy: Not clearly mentioned in the text, but similar to other products, wait - and - see for arbitrage and options can be inferred [17]. PR (Bottle Chip) - Market Review: PR2509 closed at 5866 (-0.10%) during the day and 5876 (+0.17%) at night. The spot market trading was average [17]. - Related News: The export quotation of polyester bottle chips was partially lowered [17]. - Logic Analysis: The processing fee of bottle chips strengthened, some devices reduced production or stopped, and the price is expected to follow the raw material side in a shock [17]. - Trading Strategy: Shock consolidation; wait and see for arbitrage and options [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Review: BZ2503 closed at 5931 during the day and 5989 (+0.98%) at night. EB2508 closed at 7276 (-0.83%) during the day and 7297 (+0.29%) at night. The spot price of pure benzene decreased, and that of styrene had different ranges [20]. - Related News: The inventory of styrene and pure benzene in ports increased, a new styrene device was planned to be tested, and a refinery's device had problems [20]. - Logic Analysis: The supply of pure benzene is abundant, and demand is expected to increase. The supply of styrene will increase, demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. The price of styrene is under pressure [21]. - Trading Strategy: Shock consolidation; long pure benzene and short styrene for arbitrage; wait and see for options [22]. Plastic and PP - Market Review: The price of LLDPE in most regions declined, and the price of PP in different regions also showed a downward trend [23]. - Related News: The maintenance ratio of PE remained unchanged, and that of PP increased slightly [23]. - Logic Analysis: There is large capacity - putting pressure in the third quarter, the terminal demand is weak, and the strategy is to short on rallies [23]. - Trading Strategy: Bearish in the short - and medium - term; wait and see for arbitrage and options [24]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Market Review: The PVC spot price was in a narrow - range adjustment, and the caustic soda spot price in Shandong and Jiangsu increased [24][25]. - Related News: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was stable, and the price of caustic soda in Jinling had different changes [26]. - Logic Analysis: PVC has new capacity - putting pressure, demand is weak, and exports face risks, so the price is under pressure. Caustic soda has a short - term bullish expectation but faces capacity - putting pressure in July - August [26][27]. - Trading Strategy: Caustic soda: short - term shock bullish; PVC: short on rallies; wait and see for arbitrage and options [28][29]. Soda Ash - Market Review: The futures price of soda ash decreased, and the spot price was in a weak shock [29]. - Related News: The inventory of soda ash increased, the photovoltaic industry had an impact, and the market was generally weak [29][30]. - Logic Analysis: The supply of soda ash reached the extreme and then declined, demand was weak, inventory accumulated, and the price is expected to be weak but not likely to fall sharply [30][31]. - Trading Strategy: Weak fundamentals, price is weak but not likely to fall sharply; wait and see for arbitrage; sell call options [31]. Glass - Market Review: The futures price of glass decreased in a shock, and the spot price in different regions showed different trends [31][32]. - Related News: The inventory of soda ash increased, and the sales in different regions of glass were different [31][32]. - Logic Analysis: The glass market is in a shock decline, the cost of soda ash decreases, demand has no improvement, and the price is expected to be weak but not likely to fall sharply [33]. - Trading Strategy: Macro - logic continues, glass is in a weak shock; wait and see for arbitrage; sell call options [33]. Methanol - Market Review: The futures price of methanol declined, and the spot price in different regions showed different levels [33][34]. - Related News: The signing volume of methanol in Northwest China decreased [34]. - Logic Analysis: The international supply of methanol increases, domestic supply is loose, demand is stable, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term [34][35]. - Trading Strategy: Weak shock; wait and see for arbitrage; sell call options [36]. Urea - Market Review: The futures price of urea increased, and the spot price in different regions increased slightly [36]. - Related News: An Indian urea tender had results [36]. - Logic Analysis: The production of urea decreased slightly, demand is weak in the domestic market, and the inventory is still high. The Indian tender price is high, which may boost the market in the short - term, but be cautious about chasing high [36][37]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term bullish; wait and see for arbitrage; sell call options on rebounds [38]. Log - Related News: The price of some logs in Jiangsu decreased, the shipping volume from New Zealand to China changed, and the freight rate had an upward and downward trend [38]. - Logic Analysis: The downstream demand is still weak, and the price support and trading volume need to be considered. The difference in ruler size supports the price, and future交割 details need to be concerned [39]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see for the near - month contract; pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread; wait and see for options [40]. Double - Coated Paper - Related News: The trading atmosphere of double - coated paper was average, the price was stable, and the supply and demand were both weak [40]. - Logic Analysis: The supply is stable, demand is limited, and the cost of wood pulp decreases, which eases the cost pressure on paper mills [40]. Corrugated Paper - Related News: The price of corrugated and box - board paper was generally stable with some weakness, the price of waste yellow - board paper increased, and the supply and demand of raw materials had different situations [41]. - Logic Analysis: The corrugated paper market is in a weak pattern, supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and the profit is expected to be slightly repaired [41]. Pulp - Market Review: The futures price of pulp was in a weak shock, and the spot price of different types of pulp had different trends [42]. - Related News: A large - scale investment project in the pulp and paper industry was planned [43]. - Logic Analysis: The economic indicators in different regions are favorable, but the US dollar index is unfavorable to the pulp price [43]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see for the SP09 contract; hold the 2*SP2509 - NR2509 spread and raise the stop - loss [44]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Numbered Rubber - Market Review: The price of RU, NR, and BR increased, and the spot price of different types of rubber showed different levels [44][45][47]. - Related News: The US tire import volume increased in the first five months of 2025 [45][48]. - Logic Analysis: The export of Chinese tires and the US auto order data are favorable to the RU price [46]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see for the RU09 and NR09 contracts; hold the RU2509 - NR2509 spread and raise the stop - loss; wait and see for options [46]. Butadiene Rubber - Market Review: The price of BR increased, and the spot price in different regions had different levels [47]. - Related News: The US tire import volume increased in the first five months of 2025 [48]. - Logic Analysis: The decline in crude oil prices is unfavorable to the BR - RU spread, and the US rubber and plastic product import data is slightly favorable to the BR price [48]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see for the BR09 contract; consider the BR2509 - NR2509 spread and set a stop - loss; wait and see for the BR2509 call option [48][49].
银河期货原油期货早报-20250709
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-07-09 08:51