瑞达期货沪锌产业日报-20250709

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The zinc price is running weakly. On the supply - side, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, the processing fee of zinc ore has continued to rise, and the smelter's profit has been further repaired, leading to increased production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and the supply growth has accelerated. The import window is currently closed, reducing the inflow of imported zinc. On the demand - side, the downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. Domestic social inventory has increased slightly, but the rising LME zinc premium and declining overseas inventory have driven up the domestic price. Technically, with reduced positions and cautious trading from both long and short sides, there is support at the 22,000 mark. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,120 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 75 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,719 US dollars/ton, up 36 US dollars; the total position of Shanghai zinc is 250,347 lots, down 3,271 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 18,212 lots, up 8,912 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 8,950 tons, up 1,001 tons; the SHFE inventory is 45,364 tons, up 1,731 tons; the LME inventory is 108,500 tons, down 2,100 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,160 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,250 yuan/ton, up 520 yuan; the basis of the main ZN contract is 40 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 9.88 US dollars/ton, up 12.17 US dollars; the arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,840 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons; the global zinc ore production is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 583,000 tons, up 7,000 tons; the zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons; the zinc social inventory is 69,800 tons, up 6,200 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons; the monthly new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters; the monthly automobile production is 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 14.99%, down 0.11%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 14.99%, down 0.1%; the 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 8.59%, up 0.02%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 14.46%, down 0.5% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - Trump postponed the reciprocal tariff suspension period to August 1st, and mentioned that the tariff for some tax notices might be 60% or 70%. The US is dissatisfied with the EU's taxation and fines on US technology companies and may issue a tax notice to the EU. The Fed reported that the one - year inflation expectation in the US dropped to a five - month low in June, and concerns about layoffs eased. The China Passenger Car Association reported that China's passenger car retail sales in June reached a new high for the month, with new - energy vehicle retail sales up 29.7% year - on - year [3].