瑞达期货沪铅产业日报-20250709

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly next week. Due to the diminishing marginal effect of national subsidies on consumption, domestic inventories will increase slightly while overseas inventories will decline again. Although lead prices are expected to continue rising in the short term, overall demand is gradually weakening. It is recommended to short on rallies [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,175 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the 08 - 09 month contract spread of Shanghai lead is -20 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the Shanghai lead open interest is 89,789 lots, up 1,267 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is -347 lots, down 310 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 50,608 tons, up 2,895 tons; the SHFE inventory is 53,303 tons, up 1,374 tons; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 2,044 dollars/ton, up 6.5 dollars; the LME lead inventory is 258,075 tons, down 1,900 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 17,000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,200 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; the basis of the lead main contract is -175 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is -23.04 dollars/ton, down 83.34 dollars; the price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan is 16,320 yuan, up 24 yuan; the price of domestic secondary lead (≥98.5%) is 16,960 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; the capacity utilization rate of secondary lead is 34.15%, up 0.71%; the number of secondary lead production enterprises is 68, down 0.8; the monthly output of secondary lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead is 79.05%, up 2.26%; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.63 tons, up 0.05 tons; the processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is -50 dollars/kiloton, down 10 dollars/kiloton; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is 16.4 kilotons, up 48.8 kilotons; the global lead mine output is 399.7 kilotons, down 3.7 kilotons; the monthly lead ore import volume is 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the monthly refined lead export volume is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 560 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton; the average market price of waste batteries is 10,167.86 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 41,450 units, down 425 units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, 2% antimony content) is 20,550 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton; the Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells is 1,743.88 points, up 9.25 points; the monthly automobile output is 264.2 tons, up 3.8 tons; the monthly new energy vehicle output is 164.7 tons, up 7.3 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - Trump announced that tariffs will start on August 1st without any extension, with a 50% tariff on imported copper and a possible up - to - 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals, and will soon announce tariffs on semiconductors; the US Secretary of Commerce expects to issue 15 - 20 more tariff letters in the next two days, copper tariffs will be implemented in late July or August 1st, and the research on pharmaceutical and semiconductor tariffs will be completed by the end of the month; the US Treasury Secretary said that as of now, 100 billion dollars in tariffs have been collected, and it is expected to reach 300 billion dollars by the end of the year; the US Department of Defense announced to provide more defensive weapons to Ukraine [3]