需求淡季，表现低迷能源化工：PX、PTA

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Weekly Summary - PX showed a weak consolidation trend this week. After digesting the impact of unexpected events, oil prices gave back their premiums, and the support from the cost side for polyester commodities gradually weakened. Although there are still some maintenance plans for PX this month and the social inventory is at a historical low, the overall sentiment in the PX market remains bearish due to insufficient positive factors on the supply side and weakening downstream demand expectations, despite the relatively strong performance of raw materials [9]. - PTA also showed a weak consolidation trend. Although there were unplanned changes in the supply side during the week, they failed to effectively boost prices. The polyester production cuts have been reflected in the decline of the operating data, and the supply - demand pattern of PTA has weakened compared to the previous period. The spread between July and September narrowed rapidly during the week, and the spot basis of PTA dropped quickly. Currently, there is no clear guidance from the fundamentals, and prices continue to fluctuate following the cost [9]. Market Forecast - Crude oil: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East may re - emerge, and Saudi Arabia's production increase will limit the upward movement of oil prices, which are expected to mainly fluctuate within a range. - PX: The supply of PX in China is relatively stable. The maintenance of a 280,000 - ton PX unit in Tianjin has been postponed to July 21, and a 2 - million - ton PX unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical is scheduled to shut down this month. The operating status of units in other Asian regions is relatively stable, so the overall supply change is small. - PTA: The officially announced maintenance plans for PTA units are currently limited, and unplanned maintenance is also unable to boost prices. Attention should be paid to whether new maintenance plans will be announced later. - Polyester: A 600,000 - ton polyester bottle - chip plant plans to cut production, and some polyester staple fiber factories also plan to reduce production, which will lead to a decline in the operating load of the polyester industry and have a negative impact on market demand. - Weaving: The terminal operating rate is poor, and demand has entered the off - season. - Overall: PX will continue to show a weak consolidation trend, with an operating range of 6,500 - 6,850 yuan/ton; PTA will also show a weak consolidation trend, with an operating range of 4,550 - 4,850 yuan/ton. The recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Price Situation PX - Futures: The risk premium has been fully digested, and prices have returned to the oscillating range. As of July 7, the closing price of the PX main contract was 6,684 yuan/ton, a decrease of 112 yuan/ton (-1.65%) compared to June 30. The settlement price on July 7 was 6,674 yuan/ton, a decrease of 152 yuan/ton (-2.23%) compared to June 30 [13][15]. - Spot: The trend was weak, and the weekly average price was significantly compressed. From June 30 to July 4, the average basis of the main contract was 142 yuan/ton, and the average domestic spot price of PX was 6,900.20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 95.20 yuan/ton (-1.36%) compared to the previous period [16][17]. PTA - Futures: There is no clear main line in the fundamentals, and prices continue to oscillate. As of July 7, the closing price of the PTA main contract was 4,710 yuan/ton, a decrease of 88 yuan/ton (-1.83%) compared to June 30. The settlement price on July 7 was 4,704 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton (-2.52%) compared to June 30 [19][21]. - Spot: The overall situation was relatively quiet, mainly involving negotiations among traders, with sporadic replenishment by polyester factories. The average daily trading volume was around 1 - 2 million tons. From June 30 to July 7, the average basis of the main contract was 130 yuan/ton. The weekly average CIF price of PTA in the Chinese market was 630.8 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 21.6 US dollars/ton (-3.31%) compared to the previous period. The average spot price of PTA in the East China market was 4,932 yuan/ton, a decrease of 155.6 yuan/ton (-3.06%) compared to the previous period [22][24]. Device Operation Situation PX Devices - Domestic: Multiple PX units in different regions have different operating loads. For example, Ningbo Daxie is operating at 60% load, and some units of Shenghong Refining & Chemical are operating at 85% - 90% load. The maintenance of a 390,000 - ton PX unit in North China has been postponed to late July, with a maintenance duration of two months. The domestic operating rate of PX decreased from 84.75% in the period of June 24 - 30 to 83.00% in the period of July 1 - 7 [29][33]. - Other Asian Regions: The operating status of PX units in other Asian regions varies. Some units are operating at a stable load, while some are in the process of maintenance or restart. For example, Pertamina in Indonesia has been shut down since January, and its restart time has been postponed [31]. PTA Devices - This week, the 1.2 - million - ton PTA unit of Ningbo Taihua has been under maintenance since June 10, with the restart time to be determined; the 2 - million - ton unit of Hainan Yisheng will start maintenance on August 1 and is expected to last until November 1; the 2.2 - million - ton PTA unit of Hengli Dalian has been under maintenance since June 19, with the restart time to be determined; the 4.5 - million - ton PTA unit of Fuhai Chuang has been shut down for two months since June 19. The spot liquidity of PTA has increased, and the basis of the spot has weakened. The weekly operating rate has increased by 0.52% [36][37]. Fundamental Analysis Cost - Crude Oil: OPEC+ is further accelerating the recovery of production. On July 7, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was 67.93 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 2.82 US dollars/barrel compared to June 30; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was 69.58 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 2.84 US dollars/barrel compared to June 30. The price fluctuations of crude oil are affected by factors such as geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the production increase expectations of OPEC+ [42][44]. - Naphtha: The export expectation of Middle East naphtha has recovered, and naphtha has returned to fundamental trading. The weekly average CFR price of naphtha in Japan was 575.22 US dollars/ton, and the weekly average production profit of naphtha was 17.80 US dollars/ton. Due to sufficient supply and relatively stable downstream demand, naphtha prices lack effective support, and its economic efficiency is difficult to recover [49][51]. - PX Spot: The highest trading price during the week was 874 US dollars/ton, and the lowest was 839 US dollars/ton. The weekly average CFR price of PX at the main port in China was 849.0 US dollars/ton, a change of -1.27% compared to the previous week; the weekly average FOB price of PX in South Korea was 824.8 US dollars/ton, a change of -1.32% compared to the previous week [52][54]. Supply - Processing Fees: The processing fees of PX have slightly declined due to the increased load of overseas units. The weekly average PXN was 269.66 yuan/ton, a change of -5.40% compared to the previous period. The PX - MX spread rebounded after a decline, with a weekly average of 93.9 US dollars/ton. The PTA processing fees are starting to decline in the off - season, with an average spot processing fee of 298.31 yuan/ton from July 1 - 7, compared to 397.42 yuan/ton in the previous week [55][60]. - Inventory: As of July 4, the social inventory of PTA was 4.385 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared to the previous week, with a change in the year - on - year growth rate of 0.04%. The inventory days of PTA factories and polyester factories have decreased. As of July 3, the average inventory usage days of domestic PTA manufacturers were 3.95 days, and the inventory days of polyester factory raw materials were 7.10 days [65][69]. Demand - Polyester: The cost of polyester has decreased, and the weekly average prices of polyester products have declined. For example, the average market prices of POY150D/48F, DTY150D/48F, and FDY150D/96F were 7,025 yuan/ton, 8,295 yuan/ton, and 7,250 yuan/ton respectively, a decrease of 2.5%, 1.54%, and 3.07% compared to the previous reporting period. The average price of polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6,738 yuan/ton, a decrease of 93 yuan/ton (-1.36%) compared to the previous period. The negotiation range of polyester bottle - chips in the East China region was 5,960 - 6,060 yuan/ton, with a weekly average of 6,044.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.09% compared to the previous reporting period [71][73]. - Weaving: The downstream and terminal businesses have significantly declined since July. The average weekly production and sales of polyester were estimated to be 40%. The average weekly load of polyester factories was 87.99%, and the average weekly load of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 62.71%. The fabric market is generally in a slump, with most enterprises facing slow sales and increasing inventory pressure. The operating rates of looms in different regions have either decreased or remained stable [79][87].