瑞达期货多晶硅产业日报-20250709

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand side of polysilicon faces significant pressure, with downstream photovoltaic module production scheduling reduced and demand marginally weakening. Silicon wafer enterprises are expected to see a continued decline in overall output, and cell enterprises also have production cut plans. The polysilicon inventory is at a high level, suppressing market prices. In the short term, polysilicon is still in the de - stocking phase, which may drag down the futures' upward range. One should be cautious of high - level trading and corporate hedging, and avoid excessive chasing of high prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon is 39,270 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 885 yuan/ton; the main contract's open interest is 97,187 lots, a decrease of 13,360 lots. The price difference between August and September for polysilicon is 245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 280 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 31,130 yuan/ton, an increase of 960 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 40,000 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1,000 yuan/ton; the basis of polysilicon is 730 yuan/ton, an increase of 115 yuan/ton. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.22 US dollars/kg, unchanged. The average price of polysilicon (cauliflower material) is 30 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of polysilicon (compact material) is 36 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of polysilicon (re - feed material) is 33 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon is 8,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton; the spot price of industrial silicon is 8,750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons. The total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 95,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 793 tons, a decrease of 161 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 4.89 US dollars/kg, an increase of 0.01 US dollars/kg; the monthly average import price of polysilicon in China is 2,190 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 140 US dollars/ton [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 70,569,000 kilowatts, a decrease of 1,359,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, an increase of 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 103,399,980 pieces, an increase of 19,610,660 pieces; the monthly import volume of photovoltaic modules is 12,098,490 pieces, a decrease of 8,021,950 pieces; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.33 US dollars/piece, an increase of 0.04 US dollars/piece. The weekly comprehensive price index (SPI) of the photovoltaic industry for polysilicon is 21.67, unchanged [2] 3.6 Industry News - As of July 8, the mainstream market prices of P - type polysilicon cauliflower material, N - type compact material, N - type re - feed material, and N - type granular silicon are stable at 31 yuan/kg, 32 yuan/kg, 34 yuan/kg, and 33 yuan/kg respectively. Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper starting from August 1, and on the supply side, all polysilicon manufacturers are operating at reduced loads, but the market's expectation of new capacity launch is increasing [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The demand side of polysilicon is under great pressure, and the inventory is at a high level. The polysilicon inventory of silicon wafer enterprises has not been fully digested, suppressing market prices. In the short term, polysilicon is in the de - stocking phase, and the futures' upward range may be affected. One should be cautious of high - level trading and corporate hedging, and avoid excessive chasing of high prices [2]