生猪：反内卷和理论供应收缩支撑7月生猪价格

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The demand side continues to be weak, and the supply - side pressure is expected to ease in July. There is a small upside potential for the spot and futures prices in the third quarter, but significant price increases lack support. The LH2509 contract is expected to trade with a slight upward bias in the short - term [105]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Market Review - External Market: The price of the CME lean hog main contract dropped by 3.97% from June 26 to July 3, 2025, but was up 18.45% year - on - year. The total open interest of CME lean hog futures contracts decreased by 1.28% month - on - month but increased by 42.31% year - on - year. The net long positions of futures and options funds decreased by 621 month - on - month but increased by 144,848 year - on - year [7]. - Domestic Futures and Spot: The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's live hog main contract rose 2.14% from June 27 to July 4, 2025, but was down 19.84% year - on - year. The average ex - farm price of Henan's outer ternary live hogs increased by 1.68% month - on - month but decreased by 17.99% year - on - year. The basis in Henan weakened [12]. - Contract Price and Spread: Last week, the prices of all live hog contracts increased with similar magnitudes. The spread between LH09 and LH11 contracts first rose and then fell, showing an overall upward trend [19]. - Warehouse Receipts, Volume, and Open Interest: The number of registered warehouse receipts of COFCO Meat decreased by 375, while that of Dekang Agriculture increased by 75. The trading volume nearly doubled, and the open interest was stable [20]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Analysis - Inventory: The live hog inventory increased slightly month - on - month and was higher year - on - year, with the proportion of standard hogs increasing [28]. - Sow Prices: The price of二元sows remained stable, while the price of culled sows increased slightly [33]. - Sow Inventory: The inventory of reproductive sows in sample farms was relatively high year - on - year, and the national inventory of reproductive sows was 103.56% of the normal level, in the green zone [36]. - Sow Culling and Slaughter: The culling volume of reproductive sows increased slightly month - on - month, while the slaughter volume of culled sows decreased [40]. - Piglet Prices and Sales: The prices of piglets stopped falling and stabilized. The number of piglet births and sales were at relatively high levels [45][48]. - Pork Prices: Pork prices strengthened, and the pig - grain ratio rebounded [53][57]. - Farming Profits: The profit of self - breeding and self - raising improved, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was at the break - even point [60]. - Slaughter and Sales: The proportion of fat hogs at slaughter was high, and the slaughter volume increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [62][66]. - Price Spreads and Weights: The standard - fat price spread was almost zero, and the average slaughter weight was stable [71]. - Second - Fattening: The profit of second - fattening rebounded from a low level, and the proportion of second - fattening sales remained stable at a low level. The utilization rate of second - fattening pens increased significantly [76][79]. - Slaughter and Sales: The gross margin between live hogs and pork and the price of pork strengthened. The slaughter profit was negative, and the post - slaughter settlement price increased. The slaughter volume decreased due to low enthusiasm among slaughter enterprises [83][86][89]. - Fresh and Frozen Sales: The fresh sales volume decreased significantly, the fresh - frozen price spread widened slightly, and the frozen pork storage rate was at a low level [92][95][98]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook - Supply Side: Under the "anti - involution" policy, the regulation of live hog production capacity may be tightened. The inventory of reproductive sows is in the green zone. The live hog inventory increased slightly month - on - month and was higher year - on - year. The number of piglet births increased month - on - month, and the price stopped falling. The slaughter volume in July may decrease slightly. The second - fattening profit rebounded from a low level, and the current replenishment enthusiasm is high but may weaken after price increases [105]. - Demand Side: The profit of slaughter enterprises is continuously negative, and the enthusiasm for slaughter is low. Affected by seasonality, the terminal sales of pork are poor, and the fresh sales volume has decreased significantly. The slaughter enterprises have a pessimistic outlook on the future, and the frozen pork storage rate is low [105]. - Price Outlook: The demand side is weak, and the supply - side pressure is expected to ease in July. There is a small upside potential for spot and futures prices in the third quarter, but significant price increases lack support. The LH2509 contract is expected to trade with a slight upward bias in the short - term [105].