零售行业2025年度中期投资策略：渠道精选聚焦，品牌细分增长

Core Insights - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: brand side, channel side, and long-term global trade dynamics [4][12] - The retail industry is experiencing a K-shaped demand structure, with high-end cultural consumption and rational functional consumption trends emerging [9][21] - The valuation system for consumer growth stocks has evolved through two phases, with a premium placed on growth potential [10][69] Industry Trends - The demand side is characterized by a K-shaped transformation, where cultural and emotional consumption is increasingly premium, while functional consumption emphasizes cost-effectiveness [21][25] - The channel side is transitioning from rapid expansion to refined operations, creating a favorable environment for brand growth [9][68] Valuation System - The consumer growth stocks have developed in two stages: the first from 2016 to 2021 focusing on mid-range upgrades, and the second from 2022 onwards emphasizing high-end optional consumption brands [10][69] - Valuations are anchored to leading consumer stocks, with growth potential receiving relative premiums [10][69] Segment Analysis - In the beauty and personal care sector, brands that align with local aesthetic preferences and offer high cost-performance ratios are favored [11][25] - The gold and jewelry sector is shifting from store expansion to product refinement, with a focus on design and profitability [11][18] - Online retail is stabilizing, with head companies showing potential for growth through capital investments [11][20] - Offline retail is resilient, with supply chain upgrades and standardized services driving growth in supermarkets [11][21] - Cross-border e-commerce remains a promising area, with companies optimizing supply chains to mitigate tariff risks [11][23] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends selecting companies with strong consumer insights and operational capabilities in high-end and cost-effective segments [4][12] - It emphasizes the importance of supply chain optimization for companies in the channel sector [4][12] - Long-term prospects for Chinese brands and manufacturing models expanding internationally are highlighted as a significant trend [4][12]