Workflow
玉米:政策扰动,期价承压
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-07-09 09:08
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For corn, the futures price is under pressure due to policy disturbances, but the slow - bull market may continue. The C2509 contract has a support level of 2250 and a pressure level of 2400. It's advisable to buy on dips as the fundamentals are acceptable despite increased downward pressure and policy uncertainties [76]. - For corn starch, the price is cost - driven. The futures price is expected to move in the range of 2600 - 2800 for the CS2509 contract, with cost providing support and weak demand capping the upside [126]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Market Review Corn - CBOT corn prices stopped falling and entered a sideways pattern. As of July 7, the closing price of the CBOT corn main contract was 403.75 cents per bushel, down 5.25 cents per bushel week - on - week. The net long position of managed funds continued to decline, reaching - 206,463 contracts as of July 1, a decrease of 24,181 contracts week - on - week [6]. - Domestic corn futures prices were weak, and open interest decreased. As of July 7, the closing price of the DCE corn futures main contract was 2326 yuan per ton, down 2.19% week - on - week; open interest was 1,563,264 contracts, down 2.36% week - on - week. Bullish factors included low imports, nearly exhausted grassroots grain stocks, high purchasing enthusiasm of grain - using enterprises, and the bottom - support from wheat's minimum purchase price. Bearish factors were the launch of imported corn auctions and the high cost - effectiveness of wheat for feed use [12]. - Corn registered warehouse receipts remained high and stable, reaching 203,732 contracts as of July 7, significantly higher than in previous years. Futures trading volume declined, with an average daily trading volume of 625,400 contracts last week [14]. - The term structure of corn futures showed a pattern of near - strong, mid - weak, and far - strong. Compared with the previous two weeks, futures prices generally declined, with the 09 contract having a relatively large decline. The C09 - C11 spread continued to weaken, falling out of the previous trading range, reaching 43 yuan per ton as of July 7, a decrease of 19 yuan per ton week - on - week. Market expectations turned pessimistic, and corn prices were under downward pressure in the third quarter [18]. - Corn spot prices were stable with a slight upward trend. As of July 7, the national average corn spot price was 2432.55 yuan per ton, up 1.77% week - on - week. The futures - spot relationship deviated, with the market shifting to a "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern, and the basis strengthened significantly, reaching 106.55 yuan per ton as of July 7, an increase of 73.26 yuan per ton week - on - week [22]. Corn Starch - Last week, corn starch futures prices fluctuated weakly, and open interest decreased. As of July 7, the closing price of the Dalian corn starch main contract was 2680 yuan per ton, down 1.94% week - on - week; open interest was 278,828 contracts, up 17.52% week - on - week [82]. - Corn starch registered warehouse receipts remained stable at 22,922 contracts, a decrease of 900 contracts week - on - week. Futures trading volume declined, with an average daily trading volume of 131,800 contracts last week, down 14.89% week - on - week [85]. - As of July 7, the national average price of Grade - 1 corn starch was 2893 yuan per ton, up 0.1% week - on - week; the basis was 213 yuan per ton, an increase of 56 yuan per ton week - on - week [88]. - From the term structure, all corn starch contracts declined compared with last week, with similar decline rates, showing a near - strong, mid - weak, and far - strong pattern. The spread between corn starch and corn futures contracts fluctuated within a narrow range. As of July 7, the spread of the 09 contract was 354 yuan per ton, basically unchanged from last week [94]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Analysis Corn - USDA's June 2025/26 balance sheet lowered the beginning inventory by 1 million tons, with no adjustments to other items. Huiyiwang's May balance sheet raised the 2024 corn output by 5.6 million tons and the 2025 output by 6.47 million tons, resulting in a continued increase in ending inventory [29]. - The growth progress of US corn was normal, and the good - to - excellent rate was high. As of the week of July 6, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn was 74%, higher than the market expectation of 73%, up from 73% the previous week and 68% in the same period last year [30]. - Corn imports remained at a low level. Since the second half of last year, with the tightening of import policies, China's corn imports have decreased significantly compared with previous years. In May this year, corn imports were 190,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 81.9%; cumulative imports in 2025 were 630,000 tons, a decrease of 93.8% compared with the same period last year [35]. - The number of remaining vehicles at deep - processing plants in the morning rebounded from a low level. Due to the launch of imported corn auctions and the recent decline in futures prices, grain traders' expectations for the future weakened, and their enthusiasm for selling increased. The weekly average number of remaining vehicles last week was 381 vehicles per day, a week - on - week increase of 12.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.64% [36]. - Imported corn auctions were launched, resulting in a decrease in the two - way trading activity, with sales activity still acceptable but procurement completely stagnant, and corn remained in a net rotation - out state. Since September last year, the net procurement volume has been 1.72 million tons [39]. - Port corn inventories decreased seasonally. As of June 27, 2025, the inventory at the four northern ports was 2.724 million tons, a decrease of 2.85% from the previous week; the domestic trade inventory at Guangdong Port was 1.041 million tons, a decrease of 8.12% from the previous week; the foreign trade inventory at Guangdong Port was 3,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [41]. - Deep - processing enterprises' corn inventories began to decline again, and feed enterprises' corn inventories continued to decline slightly. As of July 4, 2025, the corn inventory of major deep - processing enterprises was 435,400 tons, a decrease of 4.66% from June 27; the available days of feed enterprises' corn inventory were 31.96 days, a decrease of 1.93% from June 27 [45]. - Deep - processing enterprises' corn consumption decreased slightly. As of July 4, 2025, the corn consumption of major deep - processing enterprises was 104,120 tons, a decrease of 0.90% from June 27; the consumption of 149 deep - processing enterprises was 117,630 tons, a decrease of 1.08% from June 27 [48]. - In May 2025, the national industrial feed output was 2.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6% and a year - on - year increase of 6.9%. Among them, the output of compound feed and additive premixed feed increased by 7.3% and 8.1% year - on - year respectively, while the output of concentrated feed decreased by 5.6% year - on - year [54]. - In May, the sales volume of pig feed continued to increase both year - on - year and month - on - month, with a relatively large increase [55]. - Pig prices fluctuated upward, but the pig - raising profit was limited. As of July 4, 2025, the average price of the top - three grades of white - striped pork was 19.2 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 1.54%; the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was 139 yuan per head, a week - on - week increase of 84.27% [57]. - The pig - to - grain ratio stopped falling and rebounded. As of July 7, 2025, the Steel Union's pig - to - grain ratio was 6.10, a week - on - week increase of 0.49%; the NDRC's pig - to - grain ratio was 6.21, a week - on - week increase of 1.31% [61]. - Wheat prices remained stable, and the wheat - corn price spread remained low, leading to an increase in the substitution ratio of wheat for feed use. As of July 7, 2025, the wheat spot price was 2442 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.12%; the wheat - corn price spread was 0, a year - on - year decrease of 87.04% [64]. Corn Starch - The spot price spread between corn starch and corn remained stable. As of July 7, 2025, the spread in Suihua, Heilongjiang was 440 yuan per ton, unchanged from June 30; the spread in Weifang, Shandong was 460 yuan per ton, unchanged from June 30 [99]. - Corn starch enterprises' operating rates and output remained stable. As of July 4, 2025, the operating rate of corn starch enterprises was 51.20%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05%; the output was 264,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.11% [102]. - Corn starch enterprises' losses continued to narrow. As of July 7, 2025, the profit of corn starch enterprises in Hebei was 13 yuan per ton, an increase of 60 yuan from June 30; the profit in Heilongjiang was - 111 yuan per ton, an increase of 9 yuan from June 30 [109]. - Corn starch inventories increased slightly. As of July 4, 2025, the total inventory of major starch enterprises nationwide was 1.313 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.31%; the inventory in Heilongjiang was 613,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.82% [113]. - The demand for corn starch decreased significantly. As of July 4, 2025, the提货 volume of major corn starch enterprises was 260,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.00%; the operating rate of F55 fructose syrup was 55.85%, a week - on - week increase of 0.67% [119]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook Corn - As of July 5, the harvesting rate of Brazil's first - season corn was 97.2%, up from 95.4% last week; the harvesting rate of the second - season corn was 27.7%, up from 17% last week [73]. - As of the week of July 3, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1,491,062 tons, up from 1,380,943 tons the previous week. So far this crop year, the cumulative US corn export inspection volume was 56,446,111 tons, compared with 43,523,109 tons in the same period of the previous year [73]. - The USDA announced that 13,500 tons of corn had been sold to Mexico, with 2,900 tons scheduled for delivery in the 2024/2025 market year and 10,600 tons in the 2025/2026 market year [73]. - In the fourth week of June 2025, Brazil shipped a total of 369,500 tons of corn, with an average daily shipping volume of 18,500 tons per day, a decrease of 56.57% compared with July last year [73]. - As of the week of July 4, 2025, CBOT corn futures rose, with the benchmark contract up 2.3%, rebounding from an eight - and - a - half - month low last week [73]. - Hebei launched the minimum purchase price for wheat, and the成交 rate of imported corn auctions decreased. On July 2, 2025, the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration announced the launch of the 2025 wheat minimum purchase price implementation plan in Hebei. The成交 rate of imported corn auctions decreased from 97% on July 1 to 54% on July 8 [75]. - It is expected that the slow - bull market will continue. Although the recent corn futures prices have weakened and fallen below the previous support level, while the spot prices have risen slightly but may have reached a peak. The basis has strengthened significantly. Considering the bullish and bearish factors, the C2509 contract is expected to have a support level of 2250 and a pressure level of 2400 [76]. Corn Starch - Due to weak downstream demand, the industry operating rate remained low. It is expected that the operating rate in the Northeast region will decrease significantly next week. From July 3 - 9, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 536,700 tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 259,400 tons, a decrease of 55,000 tons from last week; the operating rate was 50.14%, a decrease of 1.06% from last week [125]. - The domestic corn starch spot market price continued to be strong, with fewer low - end transactions. Due to the low supply of raw corn and increasing costs, the cost side strongly supported the price. However, due to weak downstream demand, high - price sales were difficult, and the market was cautious. It is expected that the short - term spot price will remain stable at a high level [125]. - Corn starch futures prices fluctuated weakly, the spot price was stable, enterprises' losses continued to narrow, the operating rate was low, downstream demand was insufficient, and inventories increased slightly. The corn starch market is cost - driven and generally follows the corn market. The CS2509 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2600 - 2800 [125][126].